There is evidence that Elon Musk’s partisan public activity hurt Tesla’s U.S. sales, but it does not establish that his personal likability alone is why Tesla is “failing.” Tesla’s automotive business weakened in 2025, while its energy generation and storage business grew. The strongest direct evidence on Musk’s role is a model-based estimate of a sales effect—not a survey of likability or a count of sales Tesla actually lost.
What does “Tesla is failing” mean?
It depends on the measure. Tesla’s 2025 results show pressure in its automotive business, not a uniform decline across every segment. In its fiscal-year filing, Tesla reported that automotive sales revenue fell $6.66 billion, or 9%, compared with 2024. The company attributed the decline to roughly 8% fewer cash deliveries and lower average selling prices, citing factors that included vehicle mix and customer incentives. Those explanations are Tesla’s own account, not an independent determination of cause. In the same filing, Tesla reported 27% growth in energy generation and storage revenue. Tesla’s 2025 Form 10-K
That distinction matters: a weakening car business is not, by itself, proof that the whole company is failing. Deliveries, automotive revenue, market share, profit margins, and non-automotive segments measure different things. The figures available here establish an annual revenue decline in automotive and growth in energy; they do not settle a broader claim about Tesla’s long-term viability.
How did Tesla compare with the U.S. EV market in 2025?
Cox Automotive and Kelley Blue Book estimated that U.S. EV sales fell 2% overall in 2025, while Tesla’s estimated U.S. EV sales fell 7%. Tesla therefore declined more sharply than the market on this measure. It nevertheless remained a large part of U.S. EV sales, with an estimated 46.2% share for the year. These are U.S. estimates, not global company figures.
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| U.S. EV measure | 2024 estimate | 2025 estimate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla EV sales | 633,762 | 589,160 | Down 7.0% |
| Tesla share of U.S. EV sales | 48.7% | 46.2% | Down 2.5 percentage points |
| Total U.S. EV sales | 1,301,441 | 1,275,714 | Down 2.0% |
Source for all three rows: Cox Automotive/Kelley Blue Book’s Q4 2025 EV Sales Report, published January 13, 2026. The report’s estimated sales counts and shares describe the U.S. market.
The broader market was not in free fall: Cox described 2025 as the second-best year on record for U.S. EV sales. EVs accounted for an estimated 7.8% of total U.S. vehicle sales, down from 8.1% in 2024. Cox also said changes to federal EV incentives reshaped demand patterns during the year. That context helps explain why Tesla’s decline should be compared with the market, but it does not explain away the fact that Tesla fell faster. Cox Automotive’s 2025 EV sales commentary
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What evidence links Musk’s politics to Tesla sales?
A National Bureau of Economic Research working-paper abstract reports a substantial modeled relationship. Its authors estimate that Tesla U.S. sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67% to 83% higher without what they call the “Musk partisan effect.” The NBER abstract for “The Musk Partisan Effect on Tesla Sales”
This is evidence relevant to the argument that Musk’s public political activity harmed demand for Tesla vehicles. It is not an observed tally of lost sales: the higher-sales figure is a counterfactual produced by the authors’ model. Nor does the abstract’s estimate show that “unlikability” alone caused the effect. It describes a modeled partisan effect, and its period ends in April 2025; it should not be treated as a direct explanation for every change in Tesla sales during all of 2025 or in every country.
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There is also no verified representative, appropriately dated poll here that measures how likable consumers find Musk. “Extremely unlikeable” is therefore a judgment, not a measured finding. A person may dislike Musk, his politics, or his public conduct, but those are not interchangeable claims—and none by itself quantifies the effect on a vehicle purchase.
Can Musk’s role be separated from product, competition, and policy?
Not completely from these figures alone. The available evidence points to multiple relevant dimensions, but it does not assign a precise share of Tesla’s 2025 weakness to each one.
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- Musk’s public activity: The NBER abstract supplies a model-based estimate for a partisan effect on U.S. sales over October 2022–April 2025. It does not isolate personal likability as the cause.
- Company-reported automotive factors: Tesla connected its 2025 automotive sales revenue decline to fewer cash deliveries and lower average selling prices, with mix and customer incentives among the factors it named. This is the company’s explanation in its 2025 filing, not an independent causal study.
- Market and policy conditions: U.S. EV sales declined 2% in 2025, and Cox said federal incentive changes reshaped demand patterns. This provides context, though Tesla’s estimated U.S. sales fell more than the market’s.
- Other business activity: Tesla reported higher energy generation and storage revenue, so automotive weakness does not describe every part of its business.
Product appeal and competition may also matter when consumers choose a car, but the figures cited here do not quantify their contribution. Without evidence that separates these forces, it would be too strong to say that Musk’s personality is the sole reason for Tesla’s automotive performance.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.So, is the title’s claim fair?
It is fair as an opinion or a pointed question; it is not established as a complete causal explanation. The evidence supports a narrower conclusion: Tesla’s U.S. automotive sales and its automotive revenue faced pressure, and an NBER working-paper abstract estimates a sizeable U.S. sales effect associated with Musk’s partisan actions. The evidence does not show that a measured lack of likability caused all of the decline, that the same effect applies globally, or that Tesla as a whole is failing.
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