There is no reliable evidence in the available forecasts that China will sell 60 million electric vehicles a year by 2030. The figure appeared in a Gizmochina article published April 29, 2024, which attributed it to unnamed “industry experts” but did not identify a forecaster, model, or underlying source. It is not established as an official Chinese target. Current outlooks do support China remaining a dominant EV market—but they forecast market shares, not 60 million annual Chinese sales.
Where the 60-million claim comes from
The 60 million figure traces to the headline and article published by Gizmochina on April 29, 2024. The article says unnamed “industry experts” foresee a 60% share of the global market by 2030 and describes this as 60 million annual EV sales. It does not name those experts or provide a forecast model or primary source for the unit figure.
That makes 60 million an unattributed media claim, not a documented government target or a settled industry forecast. The distinction matters: a headline can report an ambition or prediction without establishing who produced it, what vehicles it counts, or how the number was calculated.
What current forecasts actually say
The more traceable outlooks describe China’s domestic EV uptake and its portion of global EV sales as separate percentages. Neither of the following supports a 60-million annual sales total for China.
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| Source and forecast | What the percentage measures | What it does not establish |
|---|---|---|
| International Energy Agency, Global EV Outlook 2025, Stated Policies Scenario | Around 80%: electric cars and vans as a share of China’s total vehicle sales in 2030. The IEA also projects China to account for more than half of global electric car sales through 2030. | A total of 60 million Chinese EV sales, or a precise annual unit forecast. |
| BloombergNEF, Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026, published June 16, 2026 | China accounted for 63% of global electric car sales in 2025, according to the outlook; it projects a 52% global share in 2030. It also describes EVs as almost two-thirds (64%) of China’s domestic car sales. | That China’s domestic market will sell 60 million EVs annually in 2030. |
The IEA’s 2025 outlook says electric cars are already price competitive with conventional cars in China and sees little reason to expect an economic slowdown to affect electric-car sales more than conventional-car sales. That helps explain why the outlook anticipates continued high adoption; it is not a unit-sales calculation.
Why these percentages cannot be turned into 60 million
Domestic penetration and global market share use different denominators
An 80% domestic-sales share means electric cars and vans among all vehicle sales in China under the IEA’s scenario. A 52% global share means China’s portion of EV sales worldwide in BloombergNEF’s projection. Neither is a count of Chinese annual sales. The 64% figure is domestic penetration, while the 52% figure is China’s share of global EV sales; they answer different questions.
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A share needs a total-sales forecast to yield units
To calculate annual units from a sales share, a forecast must also establish the size of the relevant total market for the same year and vehicle category. The cited outlook figures do not provide a sourced denominator here that would justify converting them into 60 million Chinese EV sales. Applying one percentage to another market’s total—or mixing passenger cars, vans, and other EV modes—would not be a valid derivation.
Vehicle scope and forecast vintage matter
The IEA’s 2025 figure concerns electric cars and vans, while its 2024 outlook discussed electric light-duty vehicles. In that 2024 Stated Policies Scenario, China’s share of global electric light-duty vehicle sales was almost 60% in 2023 and around 40% in both 2030 and 2035. The 2025 outlook instead says China accounts for more than half of global electric car sales through 2030. These are different report vintages and stated scopes, so they should not be presented as a simple, directly comparable revision.
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BloombergNEF’s 2026 figures use still different measures: a 2025 share of global electric car sales, a 2030 share of global EV sales, and domestic EV penetration. A reader comparing forecasts should check the report year, scenario, vehicle definition, and denominator before treating percentages as contradictions or combining them.
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What readers can reasonably conclude
- China is projected to remain a leading EV market: the IEA’s 2025 scenario assigns electric cars and vans around 80% of China’s 2030 vehicle sales, while BloombergNEF projects China will represent 52% of global EV sales that year.
- The specific claim of 60 million annual Chinese EV sales by 2030 is not substantiated by the cited sources; its 2024 origin does not identify the experts or methodology behind it.
- These figures are forecasts, not realized 2030 outcomes. Their percentages describe different markets and vehicle scopes and should be cited with those qualifications.
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