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What Elon Musk Meant by Comparing Manual Driving in 2037 to Riding a Horse

In 2017, Elon Musk predicted manual driving might become unusual within twenty years, like using a horse for transportation. The comparison was about social prevalence—not the disappearance of manual cars.
Entry610 Date Time4 min MechanicCarCody Team
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Elon Musk’s 2017 horse comparison was a forecast that manually driving a car might be unusual by 2037—not a prediction that manual cars would disappear or that people would be forbidden to drive them. He made the remark at the National Governors Association’s summer meeting in Providence on July 15, 2017, while separately predicting that almost all newly produced cars would be autonomous within about ten years.

What did Elon Musk say about driving a car in 2037?

During a fireside chat with Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval, Musk said, “In 20 years, it’ll be like having a horse.” He explained the comparison: “People have horses, which is cool. … It just would be unusual to use that as a mode of transportation.” The remarks were reported at the time by GeekWire and CNBC.

So the analogy was about expected social prevalence: manual driving might become a less common way to get around, much as riding a horse is uncommon transportation today. It was not a claim that every manually driven car would be gone. The “2037” date comes from adding twenty years to the 2017 forecast; it is not a date on which Musk predicted a specific legal or technical change would take effect.

How the 20-year analogy differed from his 10-year forecast

Musk made two related but distinct predictions. He said almost all cars produced in ten years would be autonomous, while the horse analogy referred to how ordinary manual driving might be twenty years later. A forecast about new vehicles being built does not mean the existing fleet changes over at the same pace.

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GeekWire reported Musk’s estimate that about 5 percent of the U.S. vehicle fleet was replaced each year. He used the slow turnover of vehicles to explain why a shift in production could take longer to become a broadly established driving culture. That 5-percent figure is Musk’s reported 2017 estimate, not a current measurement of U.S. fleet replacement.

What the horse comparison does—and does not—mean

  • It does mean: Musk expected autonomous cars to become common enough that choosing to drive manually could seem unusual.
  • It does not mean: he forecast the end of manual cars, private ownership, or all human driving.
  • It does not establish: that autonomous vehicles would be available everywhere, under all conditions, or legally permitted in every jurisdiction by 2037.

The distinction matters because Musk’s forecast concerned a possible future norm, not a measured adoption rate or a timetable for a ban. His 2016 Master Plan, Part Deux acknowledged that refining and validating self-driving software would take longer than installing the hardware, and that regulatory approval would vary by jurisdiction. Those were Tesla’s stated expectations, not proof that the challenges were subsequently resolved.

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Why “autonomous” needs a qualification

Calling a vehicle autonomous can obscure important differences in what it can do, where it can operate, and whether a person must supervise it. A production forecast is also different from evidence that a driverless service is operating at scale. To assess a claim, look for the specific capability, the operating conditions, the required human supervision, the jurisdiction, and the date and type of evidence.

A dated U.S. regulatory example illustrates the distinction. In a November 5, 2024 letter, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s Office of Defects Investigation opened a preliminary evaluation of Tesla vehicles equipped with Full Self-Driving (FSD). The evaluation addressed system performance in reduced visibility and described four reported crashes involving conditions such as sun glare, fog, or airborne dust, including one fatality. The letter treated FSD as a partial-automation system. This was the stated scope of an ongoing preliminary evaluation in that document, not a final finding about Tesla or a conclusion about autonomous vehicles generally. NHTSA’s evaluation letter

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In 2024 reporting based on NHTSA correspondence, the Associated Press also described agency concerns that Tesla’s public messaging could conflict with owner instructions and briefings requiring human supervision. That reporting helps explain why terms such as “self-driving” should not be taken to mean that a driver can stop paying attention. It does not establish the status of every Tesla system or every regulatory action in October 2026. Associated Press report

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What later deployment reports can tell us

In May 2025, the Associated Press reported Musk’s forecast that hundreds of thousands, possibly more than one million, self-driving Teslas could be in the United States by the end of the following year. The same report described Tesla’s initial Austin taxi service as geographically restricted and remotely monitored, and cited Waymo’s then-reported 250,000 paid trips weekly across several cities. These were dated forecasts and reported service details, not verified totals for October 2026 or proof that Musk’s earlier prediction about 2037 was coming true. Associated Press, May 2025

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The available figures here do not establish the worldwide share of autonomous vehicles or the current status of all driverless services and regulations. Musk’s analogy can therefore be understood as a striking forecast about culture, but not as a present-day measurement or a settled prediction of what driving will look like in 2037.

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Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.

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