Toyota currently has the stronger brand-level resale-value case. Kelley Blue Book named Toyota its 2026 Best Resale Value: Brand and projects that Toyota vehicles will retain an average 53% of their original MSRP after five years. That is a model-year forecast, not a guarantee for every Toyota or a like-for-like defeat of every Subaru.
Subaru remains competitive in particular segments. Kelley Blue Book named the Crosstrek the 2025 subcompact SUV/crossover resale-value winner, and J.D. Power’s 2025 ALG awards recognized the Crosstrek, Forester and WRX. The practical answer is therefore two parts: choose Toyota if you want the best current broad brand signal, then compare the exact Toyota and Subaru models, trims, mileage, condition, location and selling channel before deciding.
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The short answer: Toyota leads by brand, while Subaru wins in selected models
Kelley Blue Book’s latest broad comparison favors Toyota. Its March 19, 2026 announcement names Toyota the Best Resale Value: Brand for the sixth consecutive year and the 10th time overall. KBB projects a 53% average five-year retained value for Toyota’s 2026 model-year vehicles.
The percentage means the forecasted value after five years divided by original MSRP. It is not the amount every owner will receive, and it is not a five-year depreciation result measured after the fact. KBB’s 2026 award uses projected future auction values for an average-condition vehicle with 75,000 miles at the five-year point. The average 2026 model-year vehicle across all brands is projected to retain about 45%, which puts Toyota’s 53% forecast roughly eight percentage points above that overall average.
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Subaru does not have a matching 2026 KBB brand-average figure in the cited material. That absence is not evidence that Subaru vehicles depreciate badly. It means the strongest current evidence is at the model and category level rather than a directly comparable brand average. Crosstrek, Forester and WRX recognition shows that Subaru can be a strong resale choice in the right segment.
What the published percentages actually measure
Kelley Blue Book’s five-year projection
KBB says its awards are based on the Official Residual Value Guide and statistical models built from millions of transactions. The award selects vehicles with the highest projected five-year residual percentage relative to original MSRP. The 2026 release specifies average condition and 75,000 miles at the end of five years. These assumptions let shoppers compare vehicles on a common basis, but an individual car can finish far above or below the forecast.
A retained-value percentage is different from a dollar quote. For example, a purely mathematical illustration—not a market prediction—would turn a 53% forecast on a $40,000 MSRP into $21,200 after five years. The actual number depends on the vehicle’s transaction price, mileage, equipment, condition and local demand.
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J.D. Power’s 2025 U.S. ALG Residual Value Awards evaluate projected performance at three years. ALG considers used-vehicle performance, brand outlook and product competitiveness. Its release lists mileage, quality and reliability, options and features, weather and the broader macroeconomic environment as influences on actual residual values.
Because KBB’s headline is a five-year percentage and ALG’s awards use a three-year horizon, their figures should not be placed in one ranking table as if they were the same measurement. A three-year projection generally captures a different ownership period, market cycle and depreciation pattern than a five-year projection.
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Current evidence for Toyota
Toyota’s 2026 brand award
Toyota’s 53% projected five-year average is the clearest current answer to the brand-level question. KBB senior manager Rheia Szymczyk said, “For the sixth consecutive year, Toyota holds the top spot for Best Resale Value Brand, along with its sister company Lexus winning Best Resale Value: Luxury Brand.” The statement appears in KBB’s 2026 announcement and describes the award history, not a promise about an owner’s eventual sale price.
The award is a portfolio average. Toyota sells small cars, hybrids, family vans, off-road SUVs and pickup trucks, and those segments do not depreciate at identical rates. A high brand average can coexist with a model that performs near the market average, just as an individual Subaru can outperform a Toyota in a particular category.
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Examples from Toyota’s 2026 lineup
KBB’s 2026 Best Resale Value Awards page gives these five-year projections for selected Toyota models. Every figure is a KBB forecast for a 2026 model-year vehicle, expressed as a percentage of original MSRP under the award’s standardized assumptions.
| Toyota model | Projected value after five years | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| Tacoma | 63.0% | Highest of the listed Toyota examples; a truck-segment projection, not a lineup average. |
| 4Runner | 58.0% | Strong SUV residual forecast under the same five-year methodology. |
| Sienna | 54.3% | Above Toyota’s 53% projected brand average, illustrating variation by model. |
| Prius | 53.1% | Very close to the projected Toyota average; this is not evidence that every hybrid retains the same percentage. |
| Camry | 51.9% | Below the projected Toyota average but still above the roughly 45% projection for the average 2026 vehicle. |
These values are not realized resale results. They come from the 2026 Residual Value Guide for 2026 model-year vehicles and can change if auction conditions, supply, fuel prices, incentives or consumer preferences change.
Current evidence for Subaru
Crosstrek’s category award
Kelley Blue Book’s 2025 Best Resale Value awards named the Subaru Crosstrek the subcompact SUV/crossover winner. That is a category distinction for the 2025 awards, not a 2026 Subaru brand-average forecast. It does show that Subaru’s smallest crossover was expected to retain value better than competing vehicles in its class under KBB’s award methodology.
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Three Subaru models recognized by ALG
J.D. Power’s 2025 ALG awards recognized the Subaru Crosstrek, Forester and WRX. The same release recognized four Toyota models and three Subaru models, but award counts are not a matched brand comparison. The vehicles span different segments, and ALG’s three-year projections are not directly interchangeable with KBB’s five-year percentages.
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Subaru’s model-level recognition matters when the vehicles under consideration are a Crosstrek, Forester or WRX rather than an abstract brand. A shopper comparing a Crosstrek with a Toyota Corolla Cross, for example, should seek current values for those exact model years, trims and mileages instead of assuming that Toyota’s brand award settles the pair.
Toyota versus Subaru: what can and cannot be concluded
| Question | What the evidence supports | What it does not support |
|---|---|---|
| Which brand has the strongest current broad signal? | Toyota, based on KBB’s 2026 Best Resale Value: Brand award and 53% projected five-year average. | A guarantee that every Toyota will resell for more than every Subaru. |
| Does Subaru produce strong individual performers? | Yes. Crosstrek won KBB’s 2025 subcompact SUV/crossover category; Crosstrek, Forester and WRX received 2025 ALG recognition. | A current Subaru brand-average percentage directly comparable with Toyota’s 53%. |
| Can KBB and ALG numbers be ranked together? | They can provide context about projected residual strength. | They should not be treated as one table because KBB uses five years and ALG uses three. |
| Will an award predict your sale price? | It gives a standardized forecast for a model-year cohort. | It does not account for your exact trim, options, condition, location, mileage or sale channel. |
Why one Toyota or Subaru can beat another
Model and segment demand
Pickup trucks, rugged SUVs, compact crossovers, hybrids, sedans and performance cars attract different used-car buyers. A model with limited supply and durable demand can retain a larger share of MSRP than a vehicle in a heavily discounted or oversupplied segment. That is why Toyota’s Tacoma forecast is higher than its Camry forecast even though both carry the same badge.
Trim, powertrain and equipment
Residual performance can change with drivetrain, transmission, battery system, four-wheel-drive hardware, technology packages and appearance options. J.D. Power’s Danny Battaglia said, “Additionally, the top brands consistently employ a balanced strategy with regard to trim levels, powertrains and pricing, which helps bolster residual performance and long-term value for consumers who are shopping in a highly competitive market.” The comment explains why a well-positioned trim strategy matters; it does not identify a specific Toyota or Subaru trim as a guaranteed winner.
Mileage and maintenance
KBB’s award assumption is 75,000 miles after five years, or roughly 15,000 miles per year. A car driven substantially more or less can command a different price. Service records, tire condition, accident history, interior wear and warning lights also affect the value of a particular vehicle. Subaru’s and Toyota’s reputations cannot repair neglected maintenance on an individual car.
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Weather and geography
J.D. Power lists weather among residual-value influences. Snow-belt demand, coastal corrosion, storm exposure, road salt, regional preferences and local inventory can move prices. An all-wheel-drive Subaru may attract unusually strong demand in one market, while a pickup or hybrid Toyota may be more sought after elsewhere. A national award cannot replace a local appraisal.
Economic conditions and incentives
Interest rates, fuel prices, new-car discounts, inventory levels and household budgets change what buyers can pay. A large incentive on a new vehicle lowers the effective transaction price and can put downward pressure on used values. Conversely, tight supply can support used prices temporarily. The forecasts are built for a model-year cohort, but the market that cohort enters five years later is unknowable today.
How to compare two actual vehicles fairly
Use this sequence when the decision is between a specific Toyota and Subaru rather than two brands in general.
- Write down the exact identities. Record model year, body style, trim, engine, hybrid or gasoline powertrain, drive system, major packages and original MSRP. A 2026 Toyota Tacoma and a 2026 Toyota Camry are not substitutes for a brand-level percentage.
- Set the same ownership horizon. Compare three-year values with three-year values or five-year values with five-year values. Do not use an ALG three-year award for one vehicle and a KBB five-year percentage for the other without labeling the methodological difference.
- Normalize mileage. Use similar annual mileage assumptions. If one forecast assumes 75,000 miles after five years, adjust your expectation for a vehicle that will be driven 100,000 or 40,000 miles.
- Separate MSRP from the price you pay. A retained percentage is calculated from original MSRP, while your total depreciation dollars depend on the transaction price. Include manufacturer incentives, dealer discounts, taxes and fees in your own budget calculation.
- Match condition and history. Compare clean-title vehicles with similar accident records, service documentation, tire wear and cosmetic condition. An unusually clean Subaru can be worth more than a poorly maintained Toyota.
- Check the local market and selling channel. A trade-in, private-party sale and auction transaction produce different proceeds. Compare vehicles in the same region and, where possible, the same channel.
- Obtain a current valuation. KBB says it publishes market-reflective values weekly and offers an Instant Cash Offer that connects users with participating dealers. Treat those figures as current valuation tools, not as a substitute for inspecting the vehicle or accepting a particular offer.
- Calculate dollars, not only percentages. Subtract the likely sale or trade-in value from your actual purchase cost, then add financing, fuel, insurance, maintenance and taxes. A higher retained percentage does not automatically mean lower total cost of ownership.
Buying new: when Toyota’s brand advantage should influence the decision
Choose Toyota on resale evidence alone
If two new vehicles meet your needs equally well and resale is a major priority, Toyota is the evidence-based brand-level pick from the latest cited KBB award. The 53% projected average and the 63.0% Tacoma and 58.0% 4Runner examples show a strong portfolio signal.
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Do not discard a Subaru because it lacks a matching brand-average figure in the cited 2026 evidence. If the actual choice is a Crosstrek, Forester or WRX, its category or ALG recognition is relevant. Compare the vehicle’s selling price, equipment, expected mileage and local demand against the Toyota alternative.
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Account for the purchase-price gap
A vehicle that retains a larger percentage can still lose more dollars if it starts with a substantially higher MSRP. Conversely, a cheaper vehicle can lose a smaller number of dollars while retaining a lower percentage. Use both the percentage and a dollar estimate based on the price you will actually pay.
Buying used: how to avoid paying for a reputation
Inspect condition before interpreting the badge
At the used-car stage, service records, accident repairs, rust, tire age, brakes, fluid leaks and electronic faults can outweigh a brand-level reputation. Have an independent inspection performed and verify the vehicle history. A forecast for an average-condition car does not describe a neglected or heavily modified example.
Compare equivalent listings
Use the same model year or a clearly explained age difference, similar odometer readings, comparable trims and the same drive configuration. Compare several local listings and note how long they remain advertised. A national award cannot tell you whether a particular dealer’s price is realistic in your market.
Decide whether to trade or sell privately
A dealer trade-in is convenient and may reduce transaction friction, while a private sale can produce a different gross price but requires advertising, screening buyers and completing paperwork. Evaluate the net proceeds and your time. Keep the channel consistent when comparing Toyota and Subaru estimates.
Common mistakes in Toyota–Subaru resale comparisons
- Calling a forecast a guarantee. KBB and ALG publish projections, not realized future sale prices.
- Mixing years. A 2025 Crosstrek award and a 2026 Toyota brand award describe different model-year award cycles.
- Mixing horizons. KBB’s five-year residual percentage and ALG’s three-year awards answer different time-frame questions.
- Treating award counts as market share. Toyota’s four and Subaru’s three ALG-recognized models are not a controlled brand-average comparison.
- Ignoring MSRP and incentives. Retained percentage is based on original MSRP, while your financial result starts with the price you actually pay.
- Using one national figure for every location. Weather, supply, demand and regional preferences can change transaction prices.
- Assuming every trim behaves alike. Powertrain, options, equipment and pricing strategy influence residual performance.
- Forgetting condition and miles. A clean, documented, average-mile vehicle is not equivalent to one with damage or unusually high use.
A practical worksheet for your final decision
Create one row for each candidate and fill in the same fields:
| Field | What to record |
|---|---|
| Vehicle identity | Year, model, body style, trim, engine, drive system and options. |
| Purchase basis | MSRP, negotiated price, incentives, taxes and fees. |
| Ownership plan | Expected months owned and annual miles. |
| Condition target | Service schedule, accident history, cosmetic standard and tire/brake expectations. |
| Resale evidence | KBB or ALG award context, clearly labeled by year and horizon. |
| Local value | Current trade-in, private-party and dealer asking-price observations for comparable vehicles. |
| Ownership costs | Financing, fuel, insurance, maintenance, repairs and registration. |
| Exit plan | Likely sale channel and the work required to prepare the vehicle. |
This worksheet prevents a broad Toyota percentage from being mistaken for a quote on a specific Subaru, or a model award from being treated as a brand guarantee.
Bottom line
Toyota holds the stronger overall resale-value position in the latest cited evidence: KBB’s 2026 Best Resale Value: Brand award projects a 53% five-year average, versus about 45% for the average 2026 vehicle. Subaru remains a credible choice in selected categories, with Crosstrek, Forester and WRX receiving recent recognition. Make the final call using the exact model, trim, mileage, condition, location, transaction price and selling channel—not the badge alone.
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