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Akio Toyoda did not say electric cars will never catch on. In January 2024 the Toyota chairman argued that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) would hold about 30% of the market, his personal estimate, and that other powertrains would keep mattering. The “never catch on” framing is a headline shorthand, not a quotation or a Toyota forecast.
What Toyoda said in January 2024
Toyota Times published a question-and-answer piece with Toyoda on January 23, 2024, after he addressed business leaders. Asked about Toyota’s future vehicle development, he said a single type of vehicle would not suit every market. The original Toyota Times account is in Japanese, so the wording quoted in English here comes from the English-language coverage that followed.
The 30% figure
The number that drew attention is Toyoda’s own belief that BEVs could reach roughly 30% of the market. It is an estimate of the kind a senior executive gives, not a published Toyota sales forecast with a method behind it, and it has not been checked against an independent forecast or against actual market results since then. Treat it as a stated opinion about the future, not as a current sales share or a measured outcome.
The reasons he gave
Toyoda framed the goal as reducing CO₂ emissions, which he called the real enemy. He argued that the route to carbon neutrality depends on the energy situation in each country. He pointed to the relationship between BEVs and fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), and to the charging or hydrogen infrastructure each one needs. These are his reasons as he stated them. The coverage does not show independent analysis that confirms them.
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The other powertrains he defended
Toyoda defended offering several powertrain choices. According to the Toyota Times report, he said the remaining share of the market could come from:
- Hybrid vehicles
- Fuel-cell electric vehicles
- Hydrogen engines
- Vehicles with conventional engines
How the “never catch on” headline took shape
Futurism’s January 26, 2024 article, by Victor Tangermann, carried the headline “Toyota Slams Electric Cars, Says They’ll Never Catch On” and popularized the framing. It quoted Toyoda as saying: “The enemy is CO2,” he argued. “No matter how much progress [battery] EVs make, I think they will still only have a 30 percent market share.” The bracketed word is Futurism’s clarification. If you quote the line, keep the attribution to Toyoda and label the figure as his estimate.
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The headline turns a forecast about market share into a verdict on the product. The table below sets the two side by side.
| Headline claim | What the record shows |
|---|---|
| Toyota slams electric cars | Toyoda criticized CO₂ emissions as the problem and argued against relying on one powertrain. He did not single out BEVs for condemnation. |
| Electric cars will never catch on | He estimated BEVs at about 30% of the market. That is a share, not a prohibition or an exit. |
| Toyota rejects EVs | Toyota’s February 2026 announcement describes continued expansion of its BEV lineup under a multi-pathway approach. |
| The 30% figure is a settled forecast | It is Toyoda’s stated estimate. The coverage does not show it was validated against an independent forecast or later sales data. |
What Toyota has done since
On February 11, 2026, Toyota announced a three-row Highlander BEV for North America, with sales expected to begin in late 2026. The company described the model as part of its multi-pathway approach. As of that announcement, the model had not yet gone on sale, so its launch and volumes remain to be seen. The announcement shows that Toyota is adding BEVs to its lineup. It does not show that the company has dropped hybrids, fuel-cell vehicles or other pathways.
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- 2 Operating Methods: Kids car supports remote control operation and child-provided steering wheel and pedal operation, 2.4G remote control supports 3-speed regulation, parents can remotely control the speed and direction of the car to improve safety
- Real Driving Experience: Kids Electric Car is equipped with door-openable design, one button start, high and low speed adjustment, with forward, reverse and stop buttons. The steering wheel with horn and music buttons allows children to feel the fun of real driving
- Safer Experience: Kids ride on car is equipped with a 3-point seat belt, soft start, front and rear shock absorbers to ensure your child's safety and comfort while riding
- Enhance the fun: the music board of electric kids car provides USB, TF card, AUX interface, the built-in music can be played and paused, rich music options to meet the child's entertainment needs
- Meet Child's Needs: The overall appearance of electric car for kids is exquisite and simulates the size of a real vehicle (35.43“ x 21.45” x 20.86"), suitable for 3-5 years old, up to 66LBS, which can satisfy your child's indoor and outdoor driving
How to read the disagreement
The dispute is about the pace and mix of electrification, not a yes-or-no question about electric cars. If you want to compare Toyota’s strategy with a BEV-only approach, use these questions rather than Toyoda’s 30% figure:
- Powertrain mix: how much of the lineup is BEV, hybrid, fuel-cell or combustion, and whether that mix is a plan or an estimate.
- Infrastructure assumptions: which charging, grid or hydrogen supply each strategy depends on in the regions it sells into.
- Product and timing: which BEV models are announced, and when they are due to reach buyers.
- Type of claim: whether a statement is a company plan, a speaker’s opinion or an independently measured market result.
The available reporting supports a discussion of Toyota’s own stated position and its February 2026 product announcement. It does not provide a like-for-like comparison of lifecycle emissions or of market forecasts between the two strategies, so any such comparison has to come from other sources.
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The short version
Toyoda’s January 2024 remarks argued for multiple powertrains and estimated BEVs at about 30% of the market. Toyota’s 2026 product plans, including a North American Highlander BEV, show that the company is expanding its electric lineup while keeping other options open. The “never catch on” headline overstates both points.
Sources: Toyota Times, Q&A with Akio Toyoda, January 23, 2024 (Japanese-language); Victor Tangermann, Futurism, January 26, 2024; Toyota Motor Corporation, “Premiere of Three-Row Highlander BEV in North America,” February 11, 2026.
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