Probably, but not automatically or without new investment. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says near-term lithium supply is ample, yet its 2025 analysis finds that existing and announced mine projects would provide 40% less lithium in 2035 than the primary supply required in its Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS). That is a warning about the project pipeline—not proof that Earth lacks lithium or that EV growth must stop.
What the 40% lithium gap actually means
The IEA’s 2025 estimate compares projected mine supply from existing and announced projects with the primary supply needed to meet demand in 2035 under STEPS. Primary supply requirements are demand after accounting for secondary supply and reuse, with refining losses included. The IEA describes near-term supply as ample, but projects that demand growth could produce deficits in the 2030s if the pipeline does not expand. IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025.
It is not a forecast that the world will run out of lithium, nor does it mean EV production must fall 40%. The estimate depends on the projects announced at the time and on the scenario’s assumptions. New mines, expansions, recycling, prices and changes in battery technology can all affect the eventual balance. The IEA also says prospects for developing additional lithium projects are stronger than for copper.
How fast does lithium demand grow?
In the IEA’s STEPS projection, total lithium demand rises from 205 kilotonnes (kt) in 2024 to 455 kt in 2030 and 928 kt in 2040. The cleantech component—including uses such as EV batteries—accounts for most of the increase, growing from 128 kt in 2024 to 809 kt in 2040. Other uses rise from 77 kt to 119 kt. These are scenario estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025.
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| IEA STEPS measure | 2024 | 2030 | 2040 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total lithium demand | 205 kt | 455 kt | 928 kt |
| Primary supply requirement | 198 kt | 440 kt | 846 kt |
| Secondary supply and reuse | 7 kt | not stated | 82 kt |
| Cleantech demand | 128 kt | not stated | 809 kt |
| Other uses | 77 kt | not stated | 119 kt |
The table shows why demand and mine-supply requirements are not interchangeable: recycled and reused material contributes to demand, reducing the amount that must come from primary supply. The IEA also projects energy-sector battery demand—EVs plus storage—above 3 terawatt-hours in 2030 under STEPS. For context, it says energy-sector battery demand was about 1 TWh in 2024, including more than 950 GWh for EV batteries. Those are battery-energy figures, not lithium tonnage. IEA, Global EV Outlook 2025.
What recent production figures tell us—and what they do not
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that global lithium production excluding the United States reached 290,000 metric tons in 2025, up from 222,000 in 2024. It estimated global consumption at 263,000 metric tons in 2025, compared with 220,000 in 2024. These are estimates from the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, not audited final totals.
The USGS reported that prices were low amid oversupply concerns in the first half of 2025, then increased in the second half as EV and grid-storage demand strengthened. This illustrates that a tight future project pipeline can coexist with a market that has recently added supply quickly. But the USGS figures and IEA scenario tables should not be treated as a direct like-for-like comparison: their scope, units and definitions differ.
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Why lithium in the ground is not the same as EV-ready supply
A lithium resource becomes dependable battery supply only through a chain of steps: exploration, permitting, financing, construction, extraction and processing into suitable chemical products. Each stage takes time, and a project announcement or geological estimate is not the same as an operating mine producing material at scale. Refining capacity also matters: mined output, refined lithium chemicals, battery-grade material and installed battery capacity are different measures.
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Likewise, the USGS’s 2025 outlook said global lithium production capacity was expected to nearly double over five years. Capacity is not realized production: its method evaluates announced, funded projects and expected timing, subtracts operations nearing the end of announced life or with depleted resources, and treats idled capacity as available. USGS, Lithium Statistics and Information.
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Can recycling close the gap?
Recycling and reuse reduce the need for primary lithium, and the IEA includes them in its supply-requirement calculations. But they cannot supply large volumes immediately: there are not yet enough end-of-life batteries to recycle. The IEA says recycling will take about a decade to have a significant effect on reducing primary mineral demand. As the first large waves of EV batteries reach end of life, recycling can contribute more, but it is not a near-term substitute for mine and refining investment. IEA, Global EV Outlook 2025.
How to interpret claims about a coming shortage
- Check the scenario and year. The 40% figure is an IEA STEPS estimate for 2035, based on the announced-project pipeline—not a universal prediction for every policy path.
- Check the supply stage. Mine output, refined chemicals, battery-grade material and battery capacity measure different parts of the chain; processing and losses matter.
- Check project maturity. Operating mines, announced or funded projects, and geological resources are not equally certain or equally close to production.
- Separate primary and secondary supply. Recycling counts toward material available to meet demand, but its contribution depends on when batteries become available for recovery.
So, is there enough lithium?
The evidence points to a conditional answer: there is no basis here for saying the world has already exhausted lithium, and recent production has grown rapidly. But the IEA’s 2035 pipeline gap is a serious signal that supply may not keep pace with projected demand unless projects advance, processing expands and secondary supply grows. The crucial question is not simply how much lithium exists underground; it is whether enough can be produced, refined and delivered on time.
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