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Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Yes, affordability and economic uncertainty are weighing on parts of the powersports market—but the evidence does not show a universal collapse. Harley-Davidson reported a sharp 2025 motorcycle decline and cited weaker traffic and affordability concerns, while Polaris estimated slightly higher North American off-road-vehicle (ORV) retail volume. The result is a mixed market rather than one economy-wide trend.
What the latest sales data show
Different companies are reporting different vehicle categories and measurements, so their figures cannot be combined into one industry trend line. Harley-Davidson’s numbers cover new motorcycles; Polaris’s industry estimate covers ATVs and side-by-sides; other figures measure company revenue or a small dealer sample.
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| Measure | 2024 | 2025 | Change | Scope and method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley-Davidson global new-motorcycle retail sales | 151,200 | 132,500 | Down 12% | Company-reported retail sales worldwide |
| Harley-Davidson North American retail sales | 102,000 | 89,100 | Down 13% | Company-reported new motorcycles |
| Polaris North American ORV retail units | 775,000 | 780,000 | Up about 1% | Company estimate; 255,000 ATVs and 525,000 side-by-sides in 2025 |
| Polaris worldwide ORV retail units | 945,000 | 970,000 | Up about 3% | Company estimate |
| Polaris company sales | Not stated here | $7,152 million | Approximately flat year over year | Company revenue, not industry retail sales |
Polaris’s ORV figures come from its 2025 Form 10-K and are unaudited. The company says they rely partly on internal estimates and extrapolation from third-party surveys. They are useful directional indicators, not a complete census of every manufacturer and dealer.
Why affordability is affecting motorcycles
Harley-Davidson said its 13% North American full-year decline was driven in part by weakness in Touring motorcycles during the first half of 2025. The company described lower customer traffic and a greater focus on affordability. That is a company-specific explanation, not proof that every motorcycle buyer or powersports category responded identically.
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For shoppers, affordability pressure can appear before a purchase is canceled. A buyer may delay a new vehicle, choose a less expensive model, seek a used unit, reduce optional accessories, or wait for financing terms to improve. Higher monthly payments can matter even when household income and employment remain stable, because powersports vehicles are discretionary purchases often financed over several years.
The economy grew, but prices still rose
National economic data do not directly measure powersports demand. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’s 2026 third estimate put 2025 real GDP growth at 2.1%, with annual personal-consumption-expenditures (PCE) prices up 2.6%. Consumer spending increased 5.3% in current dollars, a nominal figure that is not adjusted for inflation.
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Those figures describe the overall economy, not the confidence of a prospective motorcycle or side-by-side buyer. They show continued expansion alongside persistent price increases—the combination that can make consumers feel financially squeezed even when the economy is not in recession. The BEA notes that GDP estimates can be revised in later releases, so the 2.1% number is tied specifically to its third-estimate publication vintage.
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Dealer sentiment is cautious, not uniformly negative
A November 2025 BMO/Powersports Business dealer survey found average year-over-year sales growth of 2.2%. Only 28 dealers responded, so the result should not be treated as a national estimate. It does, however, illustrate why market mood can differ from a major motorcycle manufacturer’s results: a dealer mix with more ORVs, used inventory, service work, or regional strength may perform differently from a touring-motorcycle-heavy business.
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Early 2026 signals point to modest improvement
Harley-Davidson motorcycles
Harley-Davidson reported North American retail motorcycle sales up 3% year over year in the second quarter of 2026 and global retail sales up 1%. A single quarter is an encouraging signal, but it does not erase the 2025 full-year decline or establish a broad recovery across all motorcycle brands and segments.
Polaris ORVs
Polaris reported estimated North American ORV industry retail units up by low single digits in the first quarter of 2026. As with its 2025 estimate, the figure is company-estimated and should be read as an indication of direction rather than a definitive industry count.
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How to read powersports market headlines
- Identify the vehicle: motorcycles, ATVs and side-by-sides serve different uses and buyer groups.
- Check the geography: global, North American and national results are not interchangeable.
- Check the measure: retail registrations, dealer shipments, company revenue and estimated industry units answer different questions.
- Check the period: a quarter can improve while a full year remains down.
- Check the source: audited filings, management estimates and small dealer surveys have different reliability.
What this means for buyers and dealers
Consumers should judge affordability by the complete ownership cost rather than sticker price alone: financing, insurance, fuel, maintenance, storage and protective equipment can materially change the monthly budget. Comparing a new purchase with a used vehicle or delaying optional upgrades may reduce exposure to payment and price pressure.
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Dealers and manufacturers face a more selective customer. Inventory planning, realistic financing assumptions and clear value communication matter when shoppers are cautious. Polaris’s risk disclosures specifically identify consumer spending and credit conditions, recessionary conditions, interest-rate changes, demand forecasting and dealer inventory levels as factors that could affect results; these are disclosed risks, not quantified explanations for any single sales movement.
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Bottom line
The economy is not demonstrably “bad” in the sense of an across-the-board contraction: U.S. real GDP grew in 2025. But inflation, financing costs and uncertainty are making affordability a real constraint, and Harley-Davidson’s motorcycle results show that pressure clearly. Polaris’s ORV estimates and limited dealer survey suggest other parts of powersports were steadier, while early 2026 results hint at modest improvement. The most accurate conclusion is a fragmented, price-sensitive market—not a universal collapse or a universal rebound.
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