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Counterpoint Research forecast that electric-vehicle sales in India would rise 66% in 2024, with EVs reaching about 4% of passenger-vehicle sales by year-end. Those figures were projections published on April 5, 2024—not confirmed results. The available sources do not establish how actual full-year 2024 sales compared with the forecast.
What Counterpoint forecast for India’s EV market
In its April 5, 2024 report, “India EV Sales Nearly Double in 2023, to Rise 66% in 2024,” Counterpoint Research projected a 66% increase in EV sales during 2024. It also projected that EVs would account for about 4% of total passenger-vehicle (PV) sales by the end of that year, and nearly one-third of India’s PV market by 2030. All three numbers are forecasts, not verified outcomes.
Counterpoint’s 2023 figures provided the baseline: EV sales rose 97% year on year and represented 2% of overall PV sales. India’s broader PV market grew 10% that year, surpassing 4 million units.
What the report counted as an EV sale
The forecast’s scope matters when comparing it with another sales figure. Counterpoint counted battery electric vehicles (BEVs), excluded plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and measured wholesale factory deliveries. A retail-registration dataset or one that includes PHEVs measures something different; its totals and growth rate should not be compared directly without noting those differences.
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- Vehicle type: BEVs only; PHEVs excluded.
- Sales measure: wholesale factory deliveries, not retail registrations.
- Period and status: calendar-year 2024 forecast published in April 2024, based on a 2023 comparison—not a reported actual for 2024.
- Market-share measure: EV share of total passenger-vehicle sales, a different metric from year-on-year unit growth.
What the 2023 figures say about competition
Counterpoint reported that Tata Motors held more than two-thirds of India’s EV market in 2023, while losing share to faster-growing competitors. Its report put Mahindra & Mahindra’s year-on-year growth at 2,476%, associated with the XUV400, and BYD’s at more than 1,500%; it also described BYD as one of India’s top five EV brands. These are historical, 2023 figures—not current market shares or rankings.
Why Counterpoint expected sales to grow
Counterpoint attributed EV growth to rising urban consumer interest, government initiatives, infrastructure development, and climate concerns. Moneycontrol’s contemporaneous April 5, 2024 coverage also mentioned state subsidies and supporting infrastructure. These are the sources’ explanations of the market outlook, not quantified estimates of how much each factor contributed.
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Neil Shah, Counterpoint Research’s research vice president, said the broader value chain would prioritize India for domestic consumption, technology research and development, and export opportunities. Associate director Liz Lee said rising battery manufacturing, alongside the Make in India initiative, could lower manufacturing costs and support sales growth. Both statements are attributed views reported by Moneycontrol, rather than measured findings about the effects of those factors.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Did EV sales in India actually rise 66% in 2024?
The 66% figure should be described as Counterpoint’s forecast, not as a confirmed result. The cited sources do not establish actual full-year 2024 sales against that projection. To assess the outcome, a later dataset would need to match the forecast’s scope—BEVs rather than a broader EV category—and its measure of wholesale factory deliveries, as well as use the same calendar-year period and distinguish unit growth from market share.
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