The Tool Desk
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What a truck fuel budget must include
A fuel budget is a forecast for gallons and dollars over a defined period, such as one week, month, or billing cycle. It is not a percentage of revenue and should not be based only on paid or loaded miles. The truck still burns fuel while repositioning, returning empty, taking a detour, or traveling to a fuel stop.
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- All projected miles: loaded miles, deadhead miles, repositioning, likely out-of-route travel, and any empty return.
- Observed fuel economy: the truck’s trailing fill-to-fill miles divided by gallons purchased.
- A price assumption: an actual pump observation, a forecast, or a scenario price. Label which one you are using.
- A variance process: a way to explain whether actual spending changed because of miles, MPG, or price.
- A reserve or scenarios: protection against uncertain prices, weather, terrain, loads, and schedule changes.
An industry statistic can provide context, but it is not a substitute for records from the specific truck, route, trailer, load, and season you are budgeting.
The formulas, with the right units
| Calculation | Formula | What to enter |
|---|---|---|
| Projected gallons | total route miles ÷ observed MPG |
Miles for the full trip or budget period and the truck’s measured miles per gallon |
| Estimated fuel cost | projected gallons × expected diesel price per gallon |
Projected gallons and a stated price assumption |
| Observed MPG | miles driven between fills ÷ gallons added |
Fill-to-fill odometer or telematics miles and gallons purchased |
| Cost per mile | estimated fuel cost ÷ total miles |
Useful for comparing routes or periods with different distances |
Keep the units consistent. If your miles include deadhead travel, the gallons calculation must use those same total miles. If a fuel price includes a discount, use the net price you actually expect to pay only after confirming the discount, station availability, fees, and program terms.
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Build the budget step by step
1. Choose the budget period and mileage plan
Start with a week or month and list the trips that are committed, probable, and discretionary. For each trip, record loaded miles and expected deadhead miles. Add repositioning to a shipper, terminal, maintenance site, or fuel stop when it is a recurring part of the operation.
For a monthly budget, a dispatcher might total 8,600 loaded miles, 1,100 deadhead miles, and 300 miles for repositioning and known out-of-route travel. The fuel forecast therefore uses 10,000 miles, not 8,600.
2. Measure the truck’s own MPG
Use a trailing fill-to-fill measure: record the odometer or reliable mileage total at a fill, record gallons added, and divide the miles since the previous fill by those gallons. Several fills are more useful than one, because one partial fill or an unusual trip can distort the result.
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Do not mix unlike operations blindly. If winter, mountain grades, heavy loads, high speeds, or extensive idling materially change consumption, keep separate estimates when your records support them. For example, a winter mountain-lane estimate and a summer regional estimate may be more useful than one blended number.
The American Transportation Research Institute reported average truck-tractor fuel economy of 6.68 MPG in its 2022 carrier sample, published in 2023. That is historical context for that sample, not a current universal value or a prediction for your truck.
3. Select and label the diesel-price assumption
Write down whether the number is a current pump observation, a business forecast, or a planning scenario. The calculation is only as transparent as this assumption. If the price is uncertain, calculate at least a low, base, and high case rather than presenting one figure as certain.
4. Convert miles to gallons
Divide the period’s total miles by the measured MPG. With 10,000 miles and 6.5 MPG:
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10,000 ÷ 6.5 = 1,538.46 gallons
Round gallons only after the calculation; premature rounding can create avoidable differences when you multiply by price.
5. Multiply gallons by price
At a clearly labeled planning assumption of $3.90 per gallon:
1,538.46 × $3.90 = $6,000.00
This is an example, not a current-price claim. Replace the assumption with the prices your operation expects to encounter.
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6. Reconcile the forecast with actual purchases
At the end of each period, compare budgeted and actual miles, gallons, average price, and total fuel dollars. A simple variance table identifies the cause:
| Metric | Budget | Actual | Diagnostic question |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total miles | Planned miles | Odometer or telematics miles | Did extra trips, deadhead, or detours add miles? |
| Gallons | Miles ÷ budget MPG | Gallons on receipts or fuel records | Did MPG fall, or were gallons assigned to another unit? |
| Average price | Planning price | Total fuel dollars ÷ gallons | Did the truck buy in a higher-priced area or lose a discount? |
| Fuel dollars | Budget gallons × price | Actual fuel spend | Which of the three drivers explains the difference? |
Keep receipts or a fuel-and-mileage log with date, truck, location, gallons, price, and mileage. A paper logbook is optional; a spreadsheet, fuel-card export, or telematics record can work if it preserves the same fields.
Budget fuel by truck, lane, and load
A single fleet-wide MPG can conceal meaningful differences. Assign the forecast to the truck that will actually run the miles, then tag the lane, trailer, load type, and season. If one tractor regularly hauls heavy freight through mountain corridors while another runs light regional loads, their historical fill-to-fill results should not be blended simply to make the spreadsheet easier.
For a load-level estimate, calculate loaded miles plus the truck’s expected empty repositioning before and after the delivery. Multiply that total by the selected MPG and price. You can then divide fuel dollars by the load’s revenue miles or by total operational miles, but keep the denominator clear: revenue-mile fuel cost will look lower when deadhead is excluded.
For month-end cash planning, sum each truck’s projected gallons and multiply by the applicable price scenario. This avoids using one average price when trucks are buying in different regions. It also makes exceptions visible: a truck that materially exceeds its gallon forecast may have added miles, a lower MPG condition, a data-entry error, or a mechanical issue that warrants investigation.
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When records are sparse, use the best documented fill-to-fill result available and mark the estimate as provisional. Replace it with a trailing average as more fills are recorded rather than quietly changing the assumption mid-period.
Use price and MPG scenarios instead of one fragile number
Scenario planning shows how quickly the budget changes when conditions move. The following table uses the same 10,000-mile month and is illustrative only.
| MPG assumption | Diesel-price assumption | Gallons | Fuel cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | $3.50/gal | 1,666.67 | $5,833.33 |
| 6.0 | $3.90/gal | 1,666.67 | $6,500.00 |
| 6.0 | $4.30/gal | 1,666.67 | $7,166.67 |
| 6.5 | $3.50/gal | 1,538.46 | $5,384.62 |
| 6.5 | $3.90/gal | 1,538.46 | $6,000.00 |
| 6.5 | $4.30/gal | 1,538.46 | $6,615.38 |
| 7.0 | $3.50/gal | 1,428.57 | $5,000.00 |
| 7.0 | $3.90/gal | 1,428.57 | $5,571.43 |
| 7.0 | $4.30/gal | 1,428.57 | $6,142.86 |
A volatility cushion can be added to a business’s reserve, but no universal percentage is required. Choose a reserve that reflects your cash position and how often your actual prices and MPG differ from plan, and document the reason for the choice.
One practical way to set the reserve is to run the high-price and low-MPG cases together and compare that total with the base budget. The difference is a transparent exposure amount, not a promise that prices or MPG will move by any particular percentage. Revisit the scenarios when lane mix, season, or truck assignment changes.
Compare routes by total fuel cost, not pump price alone
Step 1: Eliminate routes the truck cannot actually use
First check truck dimensions and weight limits, bridge and road restrictions, delivery windows, hazardous-material rules where applicable, tolls, and places where the combination can safely refuel. A route with a lower posted price is irrelevant if it is illegal, unavailable, or operationally impractical.
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Step 2: Total every mile
For each feasible route, add loaded distance, deadhead, repositioning, and any planned fuel-stop deviation. Use the same mileage definition for every option.
Step 3: Apply a realistic MPG and price
Use the truck’s observed MPG under comparable terrain, load, season, and speed. Use the expected net diesel price at stations the truck can reach. If a fuel-card discount is part of the assumption, verify current network coverage, fees, discount rules, and station availability before counting it.
Step 4: Compare time, tolls, and risk
Fuel dollars are only one component. Add tolls, driver time, appointment risk, parking or staging costs, and the value of arriving with a predictable fuel stop. The available evidence does not establish that a longer route to a cheaper-fuel region is generally economical.
Worked route example
Assume a truck’s observed MPG is 6.5 and the following are planning assumptions:
| Route | Total miles, including deadhead | Diesel assumption | Gallons | Fuel cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A: shorter route | 1,300 | $4.00/gal | 200.00 | $800.00 |
| B: longer route to lower-priced fuel | 1,380 | $3.70/gal | 212.31 | $785.54 |
Route B saves about $14.46 in this example before tolls and operating time. Its extra 80 miles consume 12.31 gallons, so any toll or time cost above that saving makes the detour unattractive on fuel alone. The example does not prove that either route is best; replace the assumptions with current, route-specific information.
To find the maximum fuel-price advantage that can justify a detour, calculate the extra gallons caused by the additional miles, then compare the resulting fuel-dollar difference with tolls and the value of added time. If the route requires a second stop, has unreliable access, or risks a late delivery, include those operational costs rather than treating the pump price as the deciding factor.
For a quick spreadsheet comparison, place each route in a row with columns for miles, MPG, gallons, price, fuel dollars, tolls, and estimated added hours. Sort by total trip cost only after every route uses the same assumptions and includes the same required miles.
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Maintain a minimum data set
- Truck and trailer identification
- Date and location of each fill
- Odometer or telematics miles
- Gallons added and price per gallon
- Loaded, deadhead, and total miles for the period
- Notes for unusual loads, severe weather, idling, maintenance, or route changes
Review the data by truck and by operating pattern. A fleet average can hide one unit with a mechanical issue or one lane with unusually high deadhead.
Check data quality before acting on an outlier. Confirm that the odometer reading belongs to the same tractor, that gallons were not assigned to another unit, and that a partial fill is identified. Compare the receipt total with the recorded gallons and price. A clean audit trail prevents a bookkeeping error from being mistaken for a sudden MPG problem.
Use telematics as a management loop
The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration describes a completed Motor Carrier Efficiency Study that ran from September 2010 through December 2011. It involved 46 new Volvo trucks; fuel-economy data were collected while pilot drivers received monitoring feedback, an in-cab display, coaching, and incentives at different stages. FMCSA’s study summary says the final report confirmed safety benefits associated with driving behavior that optimizes fuel economy. The study is historical evidence, not a guarantee that every telematics system produces a particular percentage of savings.
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FMCSA states: “The contractor submitted a final report confirming that there are safety benefits associated with driving behavior that optimizes fuel economy for a truck.” Use that finding to support feedback and coaching processes, not to promise a fixed return from a particular device.
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The U.S. Department of Energy’s Federal Energy Management Program lists resources covering fleet efficiency, fuel consumption, vehicle planning, and telematics. Those materials are oriented toward federal fleet management, so treat them as process references rather than endorsements of a commercial-trucking vendor or proof that one tool guarantees savings.
Industry benchmarks: useful context, not a personalized quote
| Benchmark | Figure | Qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Average truck operating cost | $2.336 per mile | ATRI’s 2026 report on 2025 costs; whole-industry average, not an individual business quote |
| Average operating cost excluding fuel | $1.854 per mile | ATRI’s 2026 report on 2025 costs; whole-industry average |
| Average truck-tractor MPG | 6.68 MPG | ATRI’s 2022 carrier sample, reported in 2023; historical sample statistic |
Do not multiply the ATRI operating-cost figures by your miles and call the result your fuel budget. The figures include broader operating costs and are useful for benchmarking, while the fuel calculation should come from your own gallons and prices.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Common budgeting mistakes and fixes
Budgeting paid miles only
Symptom: fuel purchases consistently exceed the plan even when revenue miles look correct. Fix: add deadhead, repositioning, and recurring out-of-route miles to the mileage base.
Using one MPG for every condition
Symptom: the forecast is accurate on flat, light-load trips but misses badly in winter or mountainous lanes. Fix: maintain separate estimates when your records show a material operating difference.
Treating a posted price as the price paid
Symptom: the route comparison assumes a discount that is unavailable at the needed station. Fix: use the expected net price only after checking eligibility, fees, network coverage, and station access.
Choosing the cheapest pump without valuing time
Symptom: a small fuel saving accompanies a late appointment or substantial extra driving. Fix: compare fuel, tolls, added miles, driver time, and service reliability together.
Failing to explain variance
Symptom: the monthly total changes, but nobody knows why. Fix: reconcile miles, gallons, and average price separately; each points to a different corrective action.
Overstating what a benchmark proves
Symptom: an industry MPG or cost figure is presented as a guaranteed result. Fix: retain the sample year, source, and scope with every benchmark.
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- Have total miles been estimated, including loaded and deadhead travel?
- Does the MPG assumption come from comparable fill-to-fill records?
- Is the diesel price labeled as observed, forecast, or scenario-based?
- Have low, base, and high price or MPG cases been calculated?
- Are all compared routes legal and feasible for the truck and shipment?
- Does each route include tolls, fuel-stop deviations, and likely deadhead?
- Have added miles and time been valued before choosing a cheaper-fuel detour?
- Are fuel-card discounts counted only after current terms and station access are confirmed?
- Will actual miles, gallons, prices, and unusual conditions be recorded?
- At period end, can the variance be assigned to miles, MPG, or price?
A repeatable budget turns fuel from a guess into a controllable operating number. The most reliable workflow is to measure the truck’s own consumption, forecast every mile, test the price assumptions, and compare routes on total operating impact rather than pump price alone.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How do I calculate truck fuel costs?
Add all expected loaded, deadhead, repositioning, and other route miles. Divide that total by the truck’s observed fill-to-fill MPG to estimate gallons, then multiply gallons by the diesel price you expect to pay. Label the price as an observation, forecast, or scenario.
How much should I budget for diesel per month?
There is no universal monthly amount. Forecast the month’s total miles for each truck, divide by that truck’s documented MPG, and multiply by a low, base, and high price assumption. For example, 10,000 miles at 6.5 MPG and $3.90 per gallon produces about 1,538.46 gallons and $6,000 in fuel cost.
Should deadhead miles be included in a fuel budget?
Yes. Fuel is consumed on empty returns, repositioning, fuel-stop deviations, and other unpaid travel. Excluding those miles understates gallons and makes route or load profitability look better than it is.
The Tool Desk
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No. The 6.68 MPG figure is the American Transportation Research Institute’s average truck-tractor result for its 2022 carrier sample, published in 2023. Use it as historical context only; your own fill-to-fill records under comparable loads, terrain, speed, and season are more useful for forecasting.
How do I compare two routes by fuel cost?
First confirm that both routes are legal and practical for the truck and shipment. For each, total every loaded, deadhead, repositioning, and fuel-stop mile, apply a comparable MPG, multiply gallons by the expected net price, and then add tolls and the value of extra driver time. A cheaper pump price alone does not establish a lower total cost.
Do fuel cards always make a route cheaper?
No. Count a card discount only after checking current program terms, fees, eligible stations, network coverage, and whether the truck can reach those stations without an expensive detour. Compare the net price and all added miles and time with the alternatives.
What should a truck fuel log record?
At minimum, record truck identification, date and location, odometer or telematics miles, gallons, price per gallon, and notes about unusual loads, weather, idling, maintenance, or route changes. Keep loaded, deadhead, and total miles separate so variances can be explained.
How often should the budget be updated?
Set a weekly or monthly cycle, compare budget with actual miles, gallons, average price, and total dollars, and update the trailing MPG when enough fill-to-fill records accumulate. Revisit assumptions when the truck, lane mix, season, or operating conditions change.
The Bottom Line
Budget diesel from total operational miles, documented truck-specific MPG, and explicit price scenarios. Compare routes only after adding deadhead, tolls, time, restrictions, and realistic fuel access; then reconcile actual miles, gallons, and prices so the next budget gets more accurate.
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