A June 2026 analysis by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) estimates that plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) newly registered in Europe averaged about five times their official type-approval CO₂ emissions in 2023. The finding describes a fleet-wide average—not every car or trip—and reflects how the official test assumes more electric driving than occurs in real-world use.
What the five-times figure means
The ICCT compared estimated on-road emissions with official type-approval values for European PHEVs. Its June 2, 2026 report says the gap between those values had grown by 50% from 2021 to 2023, reaching an average real-world level about five times the official value in 2023. The report also describes the 2023 gap as 401%. Saying “about five times the official value” is clearer than “five times higher,” which can be read as an increase of five times on top of the original value.
This is an aggregate comparison for a defined vehicle fleet and year. It does not mean that every PHEV emits five times its certified figure on every journey, nor does it compare vehicles’ full lifecycle emissions. The ICCT report explains its analysis and results.
How the ICCT reached its estimate
The report analyzed on-board fuel consumption monitoring (OBFCM) data submitted to the European Environment Agency for about 8 million cars newly registered in Europe from 2021 through 2023. It also used a separate dataset of self-reported fuel consumption from German vehicles registered from 2001 through 2024. The ICCT’s June 2 press release says that German dataset covers more than 300,000 vehicles; that count refers to the German data, not the 8 million-car European monitoring dataset. The ICCT announcement summarizes the headline finding.
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The size of the estimate depends on the dataset, vehicle cohort and method being described. A separate ICCT working paper published September 3, 2026 gives a 4.6-times estimate for 2023 based on around 920,000 PHEVs. The available accounts do not fully explain the difference between that figure and the June report’s “about five times” result, so they should be identified as separate analyses rather than treated as interchangeable measurements. The September working paper presents its estimate and policy discussion.
Why official and real-world emissions diverge
A PHEV has both a rechargeable battery and an internal-combustion engine. Its official CO₂ value uses a utility factor: an estimate of the share of distance driven in charge-depleting mode, when the car can use its battery. The ICCT says the official calculation overestimates the electric-driving share achieved in real-world conditions. If a PHEV is driven electrically less often than the calculation assumes, its real-world fuel consumption and tailpipe CO₂ emissions will be higher than its official figure.
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The European Commission’s earlier explanation is that PHEVs are not charged and driven fully electrically as frequently as assumed in the official procedure. Charging access and frequency, trip patterns and how the vehicle operates can all affect actual use, but the cited reports do not quantify each factor’s independent effect for an individual owner. The fleet-level result is not evidence that every driver uses a PHEV the same way. The Commission’s 2024 report describes its initial real-world monitoring analysis and the charging-use explanation.
How this compares with earlier European Commission findings
The Commission’s 2024 report found that PHEVs first registered in 2021 averaged 3.5 times their type-approval CO₂ emissions in real-world use, a difference of 100 g CO₂/km. It reported average values of 139.4 g CO₂/km in real-world conditions and 39.6 g CO₂/km at type approval for that 2021 cohort. These figures concern an earlier registration cohort and Commission analysis; they do not contradict the ICCT’s later estimate for 2023.
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A Commission follow-up on data collected in 2022 likewise reported that 320,000 PHEVs first registered in 2021 averaged 3.5 times their type-approval emissions. It noted that larger batteries and longer electric ranges had lowered official values because the procedure assumed more electric driving. The Commission’s 2022-data publication provides that follow-up.
What the findings mean for PHEV owners and shoppers
The headline is useful context, not a model-by-model prediction. The cited reports do not provide a consumer ranking by make or model, and a fleet average cannot tell an owner exactly how much fuel a particular car will use. For an individual vehicle, relevant considerations include whether it can be charged where it is parked, how often it is charged, the owner’s trip pattern and the share of driving completed electrically.
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Charging equipment alone does not guarantee a particular emissions reduction: the sources do not compare chargers or establish how much a specific purchase would change a vehicle’s emissions. Anyone considering a charging cable or home equipment should verify connector compatibility and electrical requirements for the specific vehicle and installation.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What may change in the official calculation
The June 2026 ICCT report recommends regularly reviewing the PHEV utility-factor curve and adding a correction mechanism to prevent the difference between official and real-world values from growing. It says the regulation calls for a utility-factor adjustment in 2027 and identifies OBFCM data as useful for implementing a correction.
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The separate September ICCT working paper says the European Commission acknowledged the issue, made a first utility-factor adjustment in 2025 and scheduled a second for 2027. These are the timelines described in those publications; they do not establish any later implementation beyond what each source reports.
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