Are Teslas Involved in More Fatal Crashes Than Other Brands? What the Study Found

In an iSeeCars analysis, Tesla ranked first among vehicle makes, with 5.6 vehicles involved in fatal crashes per billion estimated vehicle miles—twice the study’s overall average of 2.8. That is a rate of vehicle involvement in fatal crashes, not a measure of how often Tesla occupants die, and it does not show that Tesla design caused the result.

What the iSeeCars study found

iSeeCars analyzed fatal-crash involvement for model-year 2018–2022 vehicles in crashes from 2017 through 2022. Its make-level rates were normalized by estimated miles driven, allowing comparisons that account for differing vehicle use in the study’s sample.

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These are iSeeCars figures from its study of the most dangerous cars on the road. The page describes the study and methodology but does not state a publication date in the retrieved text.

What “involved in a fatal crash” means

The measure counts vehicles involved in crashes that resulted in at least one occupant fatality, then expresses that involvement relative to estimated vehicle miles. It does not mean a Tesla occupant was killed in every counted vehicle, nor does it report deaths per mile.

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• It is not the total number of fatal crashes or all crashes.
• It is not a driver’s individual probability of crashing or dying.
• It is not an occupant-fatality rate, safety-test score, or controlled estimate of the effect of vehicle design.

Those measures answer different questions. A vehicle can be involved in a crash in which a fatality occurs without its own occupants being the people killed.

How iSeeCars accounted for miles driven

The analysis used NHTSA Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data for eligible model-year 2018–2022 vehicles involved in fatal crashes from 2017 through 2022, the latest crash year included. To estimate exposure, iSeeCars used its own data on more than 8 million vehicles from those model years on the road in 2022, then calculated fatal-crash involvement per estimated billion miles.

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The study excluded heavy-duty trucks and vans, models no longer in production as of model year 2024, and low-volume models. Because the mileage denominator is an estimate and the sample has exclusions, the rates describe this study’s defined group; they are not a census of every vehicle or driver.

How Tesla models compared

The make-level ranking does not mean every Tesla model had the same rate. In iSeeCars’ model rankings, the Model Y recorded 10.6 vehicles involved in fatal crashes per estimated billion miles, sixth among listed models and 3.7 times the 2.8 overall average. The Model S recorded 5.8, ranking twenty-first and measuring 2.0 times the overall average.

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The highest model rate in the study was the Hyundai Venue at 13.9 per billion miles. The Chevrolet Corvette and Mitsubishi Mirage each recorded 13.6. These model figures use the same study’s rate measure, but a model ranking should not be read as a finding about the cause of crashes or the likelihood that an individual driver will be in one.

What the study says about vehicle size

iSeeCars reported different fatal-crash involvement rates across car size categories:

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Does this prove Teslas are less safe?

No. The ranking shows an association in the study’s sample, not why it occurred. iSeeCars says driver behavior may contribute as much as or more than vehicle design. The published rate does not separate the causal effects of factors such as driver population, how vehicles are used, geography, roadway conditions, or uncertainty in estimated mileage.

Karl Brauer, iSeeCars executive analyst, said: “The biggest contributor to occupant safety is avoiding a crash, and the biggest factor in crash avoidance is driver behavior. A focused, alert driver, traveling at a legal or prudent speed, without being under the influence of drugs or alcohol, is the most likely to arrive safely regardless of the vehicle they’re driving.” He also said: “The models on this list likely reflect a combination of driver behavior and driving conditions, leading to increased crashes and fatalities.”

Gizmodo’s November 22, 2024 article about the study said it had not independently verified the findings and reported that it had contacted Tesla and NHTSA for comment. It also described a separate analysis focused on Tesla occupant fatal-injury risk. That outcome is different from fatal-crash involvement, so the two claims cannot be reconciled without comparable definitions, periods, and denominators. A separate LendingTree figure cited in the article—23.54 accidents per 1,000 Tesla drivers from November 14, 2022, to November 14, 2023—also measures something different and should not be compared directly with iSeeCars’ per-mile fatal-crash rate. See Gizmodo’s report.

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