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Not necessarily. A 2024 study found that a combined group of electric and hybrid cars had about twice the pedestrian-casualty rate per vehicle-mile as petrol and diesel cars in Great Britain from 2013 to 2017. But a newer study that separated battery-electric cars from hybrids found no statistically significant difference between battery EVs and combustion cars in 2019–2023. The findings are not contradictory: they cover different periods and propulsion groups, and neither proves what causes a collision.
Where the “twice as likely” headline came from
The headline refers to a 2024 observational study by researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). It analyzed STATS19 records of pedestrians injured in collisions involving cars or taxis in Great Britain between 2013 and 2017. The researchers grouped electric and hybrid-electric vehicles together, rather than measuring battery-electric cars alone.
After adjusting for vehicle miles traveled, the study estimated 5.16 pedestrian casualties per 100 million miles for electric and hybrid cars and taxis, compared with 2.40 for petrol and diesel cars and taxis. The rate ratio was 2.15 (95% confidence interval 2.05–2.26). In other words, the combined electric-and-hybrid group had just over twice the recorded casualty rate per mile in that dataset. The paper, published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, reports an urban rate ratio of 2.97 (95% CI 2.41–3.7); LSHTM’s summary describes the urban result as 2.5 times.
That is a comparison of group-level casualty rates per vehicle-mile, not a claim that any individual electric-car trip is twice as likely to hit someone. It is also not a count of all collisions: the study examined recorded pedestrian casualties.
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What the newer study found about battery EVs
A 2025 study by Zia Wadud used later Great Britain data and separated battery-electric vehicles from hybrids. For 2019–2023, it estimated 57.82 pedestrian casualties per billion miles for battery-electric vehicles, 58.88 for combustion vehicles, and 120.14 for hybrids. The battery-EV-to-combustion rate ratio was 0.99 (95% CI 0.91–1.08), a result that was not statistically distinguishable from 1. Hybrids remained higher, with a rate ratio of 2.04 (95% CI 1.73–2.40) versus combustion vehicles.
The later study’s rates covered collisions involving cars, taxis and private-hire vehicles and counted slight and serious injuries and fatalities. It deliberately focused on 2019–2023 to avoid the volatile early years of EV use. The Nature Communications study therefore updates, rather than simply repeats, the earlier result: it suggests that the elevated rate in the 2013–2017 combined group should not be read as evidence that battery EVs currently have twice the rate of combustion cars.
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| Study | Period and vehicle categories | Pedestrian-casualty rate comparison | What the result supports |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edwards, Moore and Higgins, 2024 | Great Britain, 2013–2017; electric and hybrid vehicles grouped together versus petrol/diesel | 5.16 versus 2.40 casualties per 100 million vehicle-miles; rate ratio 2.15 (95% CI 2.05–2.26) | The combined electric-and-hybrid group had a higher recorded rate in that period. |
| Wadud, 2025 | Great Britain, 2019–2023; battery EVs distinguished from hybrids and compared with combustion vehicles | 57.82 battery-EV, 58.88 combustion, and 120.14 hybrid casualties per billion miles; EV/combustion rate ratio 0.99 (95% CI 0.91–1.08), hybrid/combustion 2.04 (95% CI 1.73–2.40) | No statistically significant difference in the battery-EV and combustion rates; hybrids remained higher. |
The studies use different time periods, categories and exposure denominators, so their raw rates should not be compared as if they came from one continuous experiment. Both concern Great Britain; they do not establish the same pattern in other countries, for every vehicle class, or for cyclists and other road users.
Why the 2024 result does not establish a cause
The 2024 study counted 96,285 pedestrians hit by cars or taxis. Of those records, 71,666 (74%) involved petrol or diesel vehicles, 1,652 (2%) involved electric or hybrid vehicles, and 22,829 (24%) had no recorded propulsion type. The unclassified group was much larger than the classified electric-and-hybrid group. The researchers conducted sensitivity analyses, but the missing classifications leave room for uncertainty about how much the estimate could shift.
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The data show an association, not why the rates differed. A quieter vehicle might be harder for a pedestrian to hear, but the analysis cannot isolate quietness from other possible factors, such as where and how vehicles are driven, driver characteristics, or differences in exposure. As LSHTM statistician Kevin McConway put it in commentary on the findings, the study “can’t tell us why the rates are higher.”
The period also matters. The 2013–2017 records predate the later growth in battery-EV use and the UK requirement, introduced in 2019, for acoustic vehicle alerting systems (AVAS) on new electric and hybrid models. The 2025 study observed lower rates for EVs and hybrids in the later period, but combustion-vehicle rates also improved. Its author says AVAS likely contributed to the decline while cautioning that the available analysis cannot establish a robust causal effect. The change cannot be credited to AVAS alone.
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What the later study says about injury severity
Wadud’s study also examined injury severity using individual casualty records from 2019–2022, limited to single-vehicle pedestrian collisions. It grouped serious injuries with fatalities and found no statistically significant association between battery EVs and severe injury compared with combustion vehicles.
This is not proof that the two vehicle types are equivalent in every crash. EV fatalities were few, actual travel speed was unavailable, and the analysis could not determine how active safety features or vehicle weight affected the outcome. The study also found that SUVs were associated with more severe pedestrian injuries, an issue that cuts across propulsion types.
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How to interpret the headlines
- “Are electric cars twice as likely to hit pedestrians?” The 2024 estimate was about twice the casualty rate per mile for a combined electric-and-hybrid group, not battery EVs alone and not an individual trip’s probability.
- “Are hybrid cars included?” Yes. Hybrids were grouped with electric vehicles in the 2024 study; the 2025 study separated them and found a higher casualty rate for hybrids than for combustion vehicles.
- “Do quiet EVs cause more crashes?” Neither study establishes that. Quietness is a plausible explanation, but the observational data do not identify it as the cause.
- “Are battery EVs more dangerous to pedestrians?” The 2025 Great Britain analysis found no statistically significant difference in casualty rates between battery EVs and combustion vehicles for 2019–2023. That result is not a guarantee about every model, road, or collision circumstance.
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