Some automakers have greater exposure to imported vehicles than others, but no available evidence establishes that exactly 12 car brands will raise U.S. prices after tariffs. The most useful evidence is a March 2025 forecast of import reliance—not current sales data or a list of confirmed price increases. Treat the automakers below as a watchlist, and check the assembly location and sourcing of the specific model you’re considering.
Which car brands are most exposed to tariffs?
PwC Autofacts’ March 2025 analysis, based on S&P Global Mobility’s January 2025 light-vehicle forecast, estimated the following shares of U.S. sales supplied by imports. These are historical projections for automaker groups, not current import shares, tariff rates, or predicted price changes.
| Automaker or group | Projected share of U.S. sales supplied by imports |
|---|---|
| Mazda | 81% |
| Hyundai-Kia combined | 66% |
| Mercedes-Benz | 58% |
| BMW | 52% |
| Toyota | 50% |
| Subaru | 45% |
| General Motors | 42% |
| Honda | 40% |
The figures make Mazda, Hyundai-Kia, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Toyota, and Subaru reasonable candidates for a tariff-exposure watchlist. Hyundai and Kia are combined in the forecast, while General Motors is an automaker group rather than a single retail brand. The figures do not support naming 12 separate brands or ranking likely price increases.
Will tariffs make cars cost more in the U.S.?
They can increase costs, but a tariff is not a required or automatic increase in a car’s sticker price. The March 2025 White House automobile proclamation imposed a 25% duty on covered imported automobiles, subject to applicable exceptions and trade rules. That is a duty on covered imports—not a 25% increase on every car sold in the United States. An automaker may absorb some cost, adjust prices, change sourcing, or respond in another way.
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Import share is only a first screen. A brand may sell both U.S.-assembled and imported models; the model’s plant, the origin of its parts, and the trade rules that apply can all affect exposure. TrendForce’s April 2025 analysis also emphasized sourcing geography, noting that Subaru imports in its analysis came from Japan and that automakers with U.S. plants could still rely substantially on imports.
Why U.S. assembly does not settle the question
A vehicle assembled in the United States can still contain imported parts. The Commerce Department’s application description calls for production forecasts by make, model, and plant, as well as MSRP, projected parts-tariff costs, and importer details. That model-by-model approach is why a company’s home country—or a broad brand import-share estimate—cannot establish the tariff treatment of a particular vehicle.
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An April 2025 White House amendment described an import-adjustment offset for qualifying parts used in U.S.-assembled vehicles. For eligible vehicles assembled from April 3, 2025 through April 30, 2026, the scheduled offset was equal to 3.75% of aggregate MSRP; for eligible vehicles assembled from May 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027, it was 2.5%. The offset applies to eligible parts-tariff liability. It is not a consumer rebate or evidence that a vehicle’s retail price will decline.
How trade rules and country-specific actions affect exposure
USMCA rules of origin and other applicable trade treatment can change how particular vehicles and parts are handled. The U.S. International Trade Commission reported in 2025 that its economic model estimated USMCA automotive rules of origin slightly increased average U.S. light-vehicle prices. That modeled finding concerns the rules’ effects; it is not a current estimate of tariff-driven price changes for any named brand.
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A separate July 2026 White House action imposed an additional 50% duty on specified Canadian products beginning August 19, 2026, with stated exclusions, including articles already subject to Section 232 duties. It has a different scope from the automobile tariff regime. The two rates should not be added together or treated as a universal new tariff on Canadian-built cars.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What to check before choosing a car
For a purchase decision, investigate the specific vehicle rather than relying on a brand-wide headline. Useful questions include:
- Where is this model assembled? Check the plant for the model and configuration you want; a company can build some vehicles in the U.S. and import others.
- Where do its parts come from? U.S. assembly does not mean all parts are domestic, and parts can have different trade treatment.
- What trade rules apply? Country of origin and eligibility under applicable rules can matter; nationality of the badge alone is not enough to determine duty exposure.
- Has the automaker announced a U.S. price change? Look for a dated, model-specific announcement or a documented price change. An import-share estimate does not establish that prices have risen or will rise.
- When was the price set? Inventory and timing can affect when any cost pressure reaches a particular vehicle’s price.
As of October 2026, the cited evidence does not establish which automakers have announced model-specific U.S. increases following the October 2026 tariff changes, or by how much. The historical forecast is useful for identifying exposure, not for predicting a current transaction price.
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