U.S. new-vehicle sales may not return to their pre-pandemic peak pace this decade. Mobility Global forecasts 16.1 million U.S. light-vehicle sales in 2026 and 16.4 million by decade-end, below the roughly 17 million annual level it says the market reached in 2016–2019. That is a forecast, not a settled outcome or an industry-wide consensus.
Will U.S. vehicle sales get back to 17 million a year?
Mobility Global’s September 2026 outlook says it does not expect U.S. sales volumes to regain the levels seen before the pandemic. It projects 16.1 million light vehicles sold in 2026, then 16.4 million by the end of the decade. Its comparison is a rounded benchmark of roughly 17 million a year from 2016 through 2019. Mobility Global’s forecast and comments attribute the outlook to affordability and broader economic and policy uncertainty.
The projection points to a gradual recovery from recent sales levels, but not a full return to that benchmark by 2030. It should be read as one forecaster’s view: the sources cited here do not establish a consensus decade-end forecast or quantify the probability of a different outcome.
How the latest forecasts compare
| Source and date | Vehicle scope and period | Figure | What it represents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mobility Global, September 2026 | U.S. light vehicles; 2026 | 16.1 million | Forecast annual sales volume |
| Mobility Global, September 2026 | U.S. light vehicles; end of decade | 16.4 million | Forecast annual sales volume |
| Cox Automotive, January 6, 2026 | U.S. new vehicles; 2026 | 15.8 million; 2.4% below 2025 | Forecast annual sales volume |
| Cox Automotive/Kelley Blue Book, updated January 7, 2026 | U.S. new vehicles; 2025 | 16.3 million | Estimate for completed sales; Cox called it the best year since 2019 |
| Cox Automotive, January 2026 update | U.S. new vehicles; 2016 | 17.5 million | High-water mark cited by Cox |
Cox Automotive’s January 2026 forecast is a near-term projection, not an alternative forecast for the end of the decade. The 15.8-million and 16.1-million figures are not necessarily contradictory: the sources describe their scope differently—Cox refers to new vehicles and Mobility Global to light vehicles—and use their own forecasting approaches.
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The historical comparisons also use different reference points. Mobility Global describes 2016–2019 as roughly 17 million annually; Cox cites 17.5 million in 2016 as the market’s high-water mark. Those rounded benchmark and peak figures should not be treated as interchangeable.
Why forecasters see a ceiling on sales
Affordability is the central pressure
Mobility Global identifies affordability as the biggest challenge for consumers and the main reason it does not expect volumes to return to the earlier level. Cox Automotive likewise points to high purchase costs and a split consumer picture: wealth effects, tax relief and rate cuts may support higher-income households, while prolonged inflation and elevated buying costs weigh more heavily on lower-income shoppers. These are the forecasters’ explanations, not measured estimates of how much each factor reduces sales.
A December 2025 forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData put the average monthly new-vehicle payment at $776 and the average loan rate at 5.84%. Those figures describe that forecast period; they are not readings of current 2026 financing conditions. J.D. Power and GlobalData’s December 2025 forecast provides the dated context for those affordability indicators.
Economic and policy uncertainty can delay big purchases
Cox cites slow job growth, uncertainty about inflation and Federal Reserve conditions, tariffs and other policy shifts, and changes to electric-vehicle incentives among the considerations shaping its 2026 outlook. Mobility Global also points to geopolitical instability, economic uncertainty and changing trade policy. These factors may affect household confidence, prices or purchase timing, but the forecasts do not isolate their individual effects.
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In a Cox Automotive survey conducted in early 2024, 78% of respondents expected the November election to influence a big-ticket purchase decision. That is a dated survey result about expected influence, not evidence that the election itself changed sales by a particular amount. Cox’s 2025 retrospective also notes the survey context and the subsequent market’s inventory recovery.
The shortage-era inventory story has changed
Sales weakness should not be explained simply as a continuation of pandemic-era chip shortages. Cox Automotive said U.S. new-vehicle inventory had recovered close to pre-pandemic levels during 2024. Its later outlook emphasizes affordability, labor-market conditions and policy uncertainty instead. Restored inventory means more vehicles are available than during the acute shortage period; it does not by itself make them affordable or guarantee a return to earlier sales volumes.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the forecast does—and does not—tell buyers
A market-wide sales forecast is not a prediction of any one buyer’s price, financing offer or ability to find a particular model. It indicates the expected scale of annual sales, not whether an individual vehicle will be discounted, how a model’s availability will change, or when a household should buy.
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- For the market outlook: Mobility Global’s projection supports the conclusion that sales may remain below the roughly 17-million annual benchmark through the end of the decade.
- For the nearer term: Cox Automotive’s 2026 forecast also anticipates a subdued year, while its estimate of 16.3 million sales in 2025 shows that the market had already improved to its strongest annual result since 2019.
- For uncertainty: Neither cited forecast provides a range of possible 2030 outcomes or a quantified breakdown of the factors behind its projection. Actual sales could differ as economic, affordability and policy conditions change.
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