A 2024 iSeeCars analysis, as reported by Futurism and Road & Track, estimated that Tesla vehicles had 5.6 fatal crashes per billion miles in its model-year 2018–2022 comparison, versus 2.8 for all cars. That is a study-specific rate—not an official NHTSA ranking, a measure of every collision, or proof of why the difference appeared.
What the study reported
Futurism reported that iSeeCars analyzed fatal-crash data for vehicles from model years 2018–2022. Its reported rate for Tesla was about 5.6 fatal crashes per billion miles, compared with 2.8 for all cars. Road & Track reported the same Tesla figure and listed Kia at 5.5 and Buick at 4.8 fatal crashes per billion vehicle miles. These are estimates attributed to the iSeeCars analysis by secondary coverage, not figures independently recalculated here. Futurism · Road & Track
| Measure reported | Rate |
|---|---|
| Tesla | 5.6 fatal crashes per billion miles |
| Kia | 5.5 fatal crashes per billion vehicle miles |
| Buick | 4.8 fatal crashes per billion vehicle miles |
| All cars | 2.8 fatal crashes per billion miles |
The figures refer to the model-year 2018–2022 comparison reported in 2024. “Per billion miles” is a mileage-normalized rate, not a raw count. The articles describe the analyzed cases as crashes with at least one occupant death. The underlying iSeeCars calculation tables and mileage estimates are not available in the cited coverage, so the reported rates cannot be independently reproduced from those sources.
What “fatal crash” means in this comparison
NHTSA describes its Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) as a census of qualifying fatal motor-vehicle traffic crashes in the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. A qualifying crash occurs on a trafficway customarily open to the public and results in an occupant or nonoccupant death within 30 days. NHTSA’s FARS description
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That system-wide scope is broader than the iSeeCars subset described by Futurism: crashes with at least one occupant fatality. The comparison therefore should not be read as covering every fatal road-user outcome in FARS. Nor does it measure all collisions, injury crashes, or insurance claims.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the rate can—and cannot—tell drivers
The comparison identifies an association between brand and the reported fatal-crash rate for this particular vehicle-year population and outcome. It does not show that the vehicles caused the difference, or isolate the effects of driver behavior, road conditions, speed, vehicle mix, or other factors. A brand-level rate also is not an individual driver’s probability of dying in a crash.
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Futurism attributes an interpretation to iSeeCars executive analyst Karl Brauer: he argued that driver behavior can counteract safety improvements and noted that many vehicles performed well in crash tests. He said, “Most of these vehicles received excellent safety ratings, performing well in crash tests at the IIHS and NHTSA, so it’s not a vehicle design issue.” That is Brauer’s commentary, not a causal conclusion established by the reported comparison. Futurism’s report and quotations
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How to interpret the headline
- Accurate: A 2024 iSeeCars analysis, as reported by news outlets, placed Tesla highest in its model-year 2018–2022 comparison at 5.6 fatal crashes per billion miles.
- Not established: That NHTSA conducted or endorsed the brand ranking, that Tesla has the highest rate across all model years or all crashes, or that the comparison proves a vehicle-design cause.
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