U.S. new-vehicle sales weakened broadly in November 2025, not just among electric vehicles. NADA reported a 15.6-million-unit seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), down 5.5% from November 2024. J.D. Power and GlobalData likewise projected total sales down 5.2% and retail sales down 4.8%.
However, the electric-vehicle decline was far more severe. The federal clean-vehicle tax credit ended for vehicles acquired after September 30, 2025, pulling some EV purchases into the third quarter and leaving November with a sharp post-credit drop. The result was a two-level story: a broad affordability and timing slowdown, amplified by an unusually abrupt EV reset.
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November’s overall vehicle market declined
NADA recorded a U.S. new-light-vehicle SAAR of 15.6 million units in November 2025, down 5.5% from November 2024. The rate was nevertheless slightly better than October’s 15.3 million units, so the month represented a year-over-year contraction rather than a further month-to-month collapse.
A separate contemporaneous estimate from J.D. Power and GlobalData projected 1,255,872 total November sales, down 5.2% year over year. Retail sales were forecast at 1,058,514 units, down 4.8%.
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Those figures are not contradictory. SAAR converts a month’s selling pace into an annualized rate, while the J.D. Power/GlobalData figure is a unit forecast made before the month was complete. November 2025 also had 25 selling days, one fewer than November 2024. Both sources pointed in the same direction: the U.S. market was softer than it had been a year earlier but modestly improved from October.
The central evidence concerns the United States. It should not be interpreted as a statement about global vehicle sales.
EV sales fell much more sharply after the federal credit expired
The most important EV-specific event was the expiration of the federal clean-vehicle credits. The IRS instructions for 2025 Form 8936 state that taxpayers cannot claim the new, previously owned, or commercial clean-vehicle credits for vehicles acquired after September 30, 2025.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesThat deadline changed the timing of purchases. Some consumers who might otherwise have bought an EV in the fourth quarter moved their transactions into the third quarter to qualify for the credit. NADA described the result as significant pull-ahead volume earlier in 2025. J.D. Power also attributed part of November’s weakness to EV purchases accelerated before the September 30 deadline.
Once those purchases were pulled forward, November was left facing both the normal affordability pressures affecting the entire market and an unusually difficult comparison with a quarter that had benefited from incentive-driven demand.
EV share estimates show the size of the reset
Several research organizations measured November EV share differently, so their figures should not be treated as one perfectly interchangeable number:
| Source | November 2025 EV or BEV share | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| NADA | 5.1% BEV share | Down from an 11.3% high in September |
| J.D. Power | 6.0% of retail sales | Down from 12.9% in September and 9.6% a year earlier |
| Kelley Blue Book/Cox Automotive estimate | 5.4% of new-car sales | Down from 11.6% in September |
BEV share, EV retail share, and total new-car EV share are not necessarily identical measures. Differences in coverage, definitions, and sales methodology explain why the estimates vary. The consistent conclusion is more important than the individual decimal: EV share fell dramatically after the credit deadline.
Some shoppers shifted toward hybrids and gasoline vehicles
The EV decline was not simply a mathematical consequence of a smaller overall market. J.D. Power’s November retail-sales forecast showed a clear change in the powertrain mix:
| Powertrain | Projected November 2025 retail share | Year-over-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Internal-combustion vehicles | 77.5% | Up 2.3 percentage points |
| Conventional hybrids | 14.5% | Up 1.7 percentage points |
| Plug-in hybrids | 1.1% | Down 1.4 percentage points |
| Battery-electric vehicles | 6.0% | Down 3.6 percentage points |
This pattern suggests that at least some shoppers were choosing conventional hybrids or gasoline-powered vehicles instead of battery EVs. Hybrids can offer improved fuel economy without requiring a buyer to depend entirely on charging infrastructure or accept the same purchase-price and range considerations as a full EV.
But the figures do not prove that every lost EV sale became a hybrid sale. Some buyers likely postponed a purchase altogether, bought a used vehicle, selected a conventional vehicle, or moved an EV purchase into the earlier credit-eligible period.
Why gasoline and hybrid shoppers were also holding back
The total market’s decline points to a broader affordability problem. J.D. Power projected an average new-vehicle transaction price of $46,029 in November, up $722, or 1.6%, from November 2024.
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The average monthly finance payment was expected to reach a November record of $760, while the average new-vehicle loan rate was projected at 6.05%. Extended loans of at least 84 months were expected to account for 11.1% of financed sales.
Those numbers matter regardless of powertrain. A buyer who is interested in a gasoline crossover, a hybrid sedan, or an EV still has to qualify for—and absorb—the monthly payment. Higher transaction prices and financing costs can cause shoppers to delay, downsize, search for a less expensive trim, or remain in their current vehicle.
The market’s continued preference for larger vehicles did not eliminate that pressure. Trucks and SUVs were expected to represent 82.6% of November retail sales, up from a year earlier, yet overall retail volume was still projected to decline.
Brand and model results were mixed, not uniformly weak
November’s weakness appeared across mainstream brands and conventional vehicles, although the results varied. A compilation of November reports showed declines for brands including Honda, Subaru, Mazda, Hyundai, and Ford, while Toyota and Kia posted increases. Reported percentages vary depending on whether a table measures a brand, a larger corporate group, or a particular reporting period, so these examples should not be treated as a definitive ranking of every automaker.
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- Ford battery-electric sales fell 61% year over year to 4,247 units.
- Ford hybrid sales rose 14% to 16,301 units.
- Hyundai hybrid volume increased 42% to a record 20,288 units.
- Hyundai’s total sales still declined 2.3%.
These results support a nuanced interpretation. Demand for hybrids was strong in some product lines, and some consumers may have viewed hybrids as a compromise between gasoline vehicles and full EVs. At the same time, hybrid growth did not fully offset weakness elsewhere in the market.
EV discounts were large, but that does not mean every buyer received one
Manufacturers and dealers were responding to the post-credit environment with unusually aggressive EV incentives. J.D. Power projected average EV discounts of $11,869 per vehicle in November, compared with $2,960 for non-EVs. Average incentive spending across all vehicles was expected to be $3,211 per vehicle.
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The EV figure is an industry average or forecast, not a guaranteed discount on every model. Incentives can vary substantially by vehicle, trim, region, inventory level, financing method, lease structure, and eligibility requirements. A large average discount also does not automatically make an EV affordable if its starting price, insurance cost, financing terms, or residual value remains less favorable for a particular buyer.
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Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Inventory rose as sales slowed
Retail inventory was projected at 2.29 million vehicles in November, up 11.7% from a year earlier. Industry supply was estimated at 64 days, five days higher year over year.
More inventory can eventually benefit shoppers by increasing selection and giving dealers more reason to negotiate. But it can also signal that vehicles are not moving quickly enough, particularly when demand has been pulled forward or when consumers are resisting higher payments. The effect is not uniform: a model with abundant inventory may be heavily discounted, while a popular configuration can remain difficult to find.
Leasing was less able to support the market
Leasing has been especially important in the EV market. J.D. Power reported that EV leasing represented 54% of EV transactions, compared with 20% for ICE vehicles and 15% for hybrids.
Yet leasing was also losing momentum overall. Leases were projected to account for 20.5% of all November sales, down 2.7 percentage points from a year earlier. December lease expirations were expected to be more than 15% below the comparable period a year earlier and 50% below 2023.
Fewer expiring leases mean fewer customers automatically returning to dealerships for another new vehicle. That removes one source of predictable replacement demand and limits the usual year-end sales boost. For EVs, where leasing had been used heavily to reduce the impact of high transaction prices and navigate incentive rules, a weaker leasing pipeline is particularly significant.
Used-car equity helped some buyers—but not everyone
Used-vehicle conditions provided partial support. J.D. Power estimated the average used-vehicle price at $29,696, up $725 year over year, and average trade-in equity at approximately $7,822.
Strong trade-in equity can reduce the amount a buyer needs to finance and make a higher-priced new vehicle more manageable. However, the benefit was not universal. An estimated 26.9% of trade-ins carried negative equity, up 3.3 percentage points year over year.
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Negative equity means the vehicle owner owes more on the existing loan than the vehicle is worth. Rolling that shortfall into a new loan can raise the amount financed, increase the monthly payment, and make an already expensive purchase harder to justify. This is another reason the market slowdown affected conventional-vehicle shoppers as well as EV shoppers.
What November says about the vehicle market
November 2025 should not be described as an EV-only collapse. The broader new-vehicle market was down about 5% year over year by the principal industry estimates, and the pressure was visible in transaction prices, loan payments, interest rates, lease activity, and negative equity.
At the same time, it would be misleading to treat EVs as merely following the overall market. Their decline was substantially steeper, and the timing of the federal credit expiration provides a strong explanation for why. Purchases were pulled forward before September 30, then demand fell sharply afterward as the incentive disappeared and inventory accumulated.
The most defensible reading is therefore:
- The overall market softened because vehicles and financing remained expensive.
- EVs experienced an additional policy-driven shock after the federal credit deadline.
- Some consumers shifted toward hybrids and ICE vehicles, while others delayed buying.
- Higher incentives and rising inventory may create better deals, but they do not remove payment and affordability constraints.
For shoppers, the practical implication is that November’s sales data does not establish that EV demand has permanently disappeared. It shows that an incentive-driven pull-ahead period was followed by a difficult reset, during a time when the entire vehicle market was already contending with high prices and expensive credit.
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Were vehicle sales down only because EV sales collapsed?
No. The U.S. overall new-light-vehicle SAAR fell 5.5% year over year in November 2025, and J.D. Power/GlobalData projected total sales down 5.2%. EVs fell much more sharply, but affordability and financing pressures affected the entire market.
Why did EV sales fall so much in November 2025?
The federal clean-vehicle credits ended for vehicles acquired after September 30, 2025. Some buyers moved purchases into the third quarter to qualify, pulling demand forward and leaving a weaker post-deadline market in November.
Did buyers switch from EVs to hybrids?
Some appear to have done so, but the data cannot identify every individual buyer’s decision. J.D. Power projected conventional hybrids at 14.5% of November retail sales, up 1.7 percentage points year over year, while battery EVs were projected at 6.0%, down 3.6 points.
Were new-car prices lower because sales declined?
Not overall. J.D. Power projected an average November transaction price of $46,029, up 1.6% year over year. EV discounts were unusually high on average, but actual incentives varied by vehicle, dealer, market, and transaction structure.
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The Bottom Line
November 2025 was both a broad vehicle-market slowdown and an unusually sharp EV correction. Overall sales fell as high prices, 6.05% average loan rates, $760 monthly payments, weaker leasing activity, and negative equity constrained buyers. EVs faced those same pressures plus the expiration of the federal credit after September 30, which pulled purchases forward and intensified the November drop.
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