SEMA’s 2026 Future Trends outlook points to an aftermarket that must serve two realities at once: a growing, aging U.S. vehicle fleet and newer vehicles with more complex technology. For manufacturers, repairers and specialty-equipment businesses, that means balancing support for trucks and CUVs and long-lived internal-combustion vehicles with vehicle-specific planning for ADAS and evolving powertrains. SEMA describes a return to annual industry growth of 3%–4%, but also highlights financing pressure, inflation and uncertainty; that forecast is an outlook, not a guarantee for any business or product segment.
What SEMA’s 2026 Future Trends report says
The Future Trends report reviews the state of the industry in 2025 and sets a baseline for 2026, covering the economy and imports, vehicle sales and financing, alternative powertrains, and the market outlook. Its central planning implication is not a single winning product category. It is the need to serve a broad, aging fleet while adapting to newer vehicles that are more technology-dependent.
In its 2026 summary of the Future Trends report, SEMA puts specialty-equipment sales at $52.65 billion and expects annual growth of 3%–4%. That is SEMA’s reported figure and forecast for this report; it should not be confused with the $52.92 billion figure in SEMA’s separate 2026 Market Report, which covers consumer spending and shopping in 2025.
Why the fleet mix matters
Light trucks and CUVs remain central
SEMA reports that light trucks and CUVs account for more than 80% of new-vehicle sales in its 2026 outlook. That makes these vehicles an important fitment and product-development consideration, particularly as ADAS features spread across the market. It is a fleet-wide signal, not a guarantee that every business should prioritize the same models or applications.
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An expanding, aging vehicle population broadens the work
SEMA says the U.S. vehicle population has surpassed 295 million and that vehicles are staying on the road longer. A larger, longer-lived fleet can support repair, maintenance and personalization needs across both newer vehicles and older ones. The result is a two-sided planning challenge: accommodate newer vehicles with increasingly complex systems while continuing to support legacy applications.
Gavin Knapp, SEMA/PRI’s Director of Market Research, frames the change this way: “The U.S. vehicle fleet is simultaneously growing, aging and becoming exponentially more technologically complex.” That is a useful description of why age alone is not a sufficient guide to aftermarket demand.
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How financing pressure can affect customer demand
SEMA’s 2026 summary reports new-vehicle borrowing rates around 7.6% and used-vehicle rates around 11.4%, and describes monthly payments above $1,000 as increasingly common. These are figures and a payment trend reported by SEMA, not terms that apply to every borrower, vehicle or loan offer.
SEMA says tighter lending standards can push some buyers away from new vehicles and contribute to longer ownership. For aftermarket businesses, that suggests demand may be split: some customers may continue to buy premium upgrades and personalization, while others prioritize essential maintenance or lower-cost improvements. Service, clear value and product differentiation are reasonable planning responses to that mixed environment, not guaranteed routes to sales growth.
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What the powertrain outlook means for product planning
SEMA characterizes EV uptake as slowing amid cost and infrastructure issues, hybrids as gaining traction, and internal-combustion vehicles as remaining important in the near term. The summary also says automakers are recalibrating investment. These are industry outlook statements, not a precise segment-by-segment sales forecast.
Maintain support for the installed ICE fleet
Knapp’s article argues for retaining catalog support for internal-combustion vehicles, including maintenance, tuning, exhaust and internal-component applications. Given the size and age of the existing fleet, that is a planning case for continued ICE coverage rather than a claim that demand for any specific part will persist at a particular level.
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Monitor hybrids and EVs without treating them as interchangeable
SEMA’s account of different adoption speeds supports tracking hybrid and EV opportunities while recognizing that customer needs and technical requirements differ by powertrain. The appropriate investment depends on a company’s products, customer base and technical capacity; the outlook does not establish one universal timetable for shifting a catalog or service operation.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.ADAS changes the fitment and service equation
SEMA says driver-assistance features such as automatic emergency braking and lane keeping are spreading across vehicles. It warns that modifications including lift kits, bumpers and lighting can affect sensor performance, and that OEMs do not share a universal standard. This does not mean every modification disables ADAS; it means fitment and service decisions need to account for the specific vehicle and system involved.
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For manufacturers, installers and repairers, the practical implication is to understand vehicle-specific compatibility and whether integration, calibration or testing considerations apply. SEMA identifies its Garages in Diamond Bar and Detroit as resources for understanding those issues. The summary does not prescribe one procedure for all vehicles or modifications.
A planning framework for aftermarket businesses
SEMA’s outlook suggests using four connected questions to review product, service and investment choices. They are planning axes, not a universal ranking.
- Which vehicles do your customers actually use? Weigh opportunities in light trucks and CUVs against the broader, aging fleet your business already serves.
- Which powertrain horizons can you support? Preserve relevant ICE coverage while assessing hybrid and EV needs against your customers and technical capabilities.
- How sensitive is the work to customer budgets? Consider how premium personalization, essential maintenance and lower-cost improvements fit the different economics customers face.
- What does technology change about fitment? Identify applications where ADAS integration, calibration or testing may need vehicle-specific attention.
The balance will differ by business. A specialty manufacturer, a repair shop and an installer do not face identical product or capability decisions, and SEMA’s summary does not provide segment-level figures to settle those decisions for them.
Keep the two SEMA reports separate
The 2026 Future Trends report and the 2026 Market Report answer different questions. The former reviews industry conditions in 2025 and establishes a baseline for 2026. The separate Market Report covers consumer spending and shopping in 2025. SEMA’s public summary of that second report gives $52.92 billion in accessory and performance-parts sales, says pickup-related accessories and performance products represented 30% of industry sales in 2025, and reports more than $15 billion spent modifying pickups. Those are Market Report figures, not figures from Future Trends.
SEMA lists the Future Trends report through its research program as free for members and $2,500 for non-members. Access terms can change. The publicly available summary highlights key takeaways; the full report contains more detailed charts, forecasts, consumer analysis and segment data.
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