The best reported estimate puts Formula 1’s lost revenue from cancelling the April 2026 Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix at $190–200 million, with an estimated approximately $80 million EBITDA impact. Those are estimates from Guggenheim Partners analysis, as reported by The National—not a final loss figure disclosed by Formula 1 or its parent company, Liberty Media.
What do the reported loss figures mean?
The headline estimate covers a broader commercial impact than the races’ hosting fees alone. The National’s account of Guggenheim Partners’ analysis estimated $190–200 million in lost revenue and an approximately $80 million EBITDA impact. EBITDA is a measure of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization; it is not the same as revenue or cash lost.
The same report put the two races’ combined hosting fees at approximately $115 million. That figure is one component of the financial picture, not an alternative estimate of the total revenue impact. The National also reported that hosting fees across the full calendar generated $824 million in 2025, about 27% of F1’s $3.87 billion total revenue. These figures are attributed estimates and reporting, not a standalone cancellation-loss statement from F1. The National’s report
| Figure | What it measures | Attribution |
|---|---|---|
| $190–200 million | Estimated lost revenue from the two cancelled races | Guggenheim Partners analysis, as reported by The National |
| Approximately $80 million | Estimated EBITDA impact | Guggenheim Partners analysis, as reported by The National |
| Approximately $115 million | Estimated combined hosting fees for Bahrain and Saudi Arabia | The National’s 2026 report |
| More than £100 million | Expected commercial impact, forecast before F1’s formal cancellation announcement | BBC Sport; separate estimate in a different currency and potentially different scope |
BBC Sport’s earlier forecast should not be added to or directly compared with the dollar estimates: it was published before the formal cancellation announcement and used a different currency and scope. BBC Sport
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Why is there no definitive net-loss number?
The gross hosting-fee estimate does not automatically equal the amount F1 ultimately lost. Liberty Media’s SEC filing says payment obligations when a race is cancelled for reasons beyond F1’s control depend on the relevant promoter agreement. The filing also describes possible broadcast-fee reductions if the calendar falls below contract-specific event thresholds, and likely sponsor-fee reductions if a cancelled event is not replaced, subject to contract terms. Liberty Media SEC filing
Those contract-dependent adjustments help explain why hosting fees, total revenue impact and EBITDA impact are distinct measures. The publicly reported estimates do not establish the final amount retained, recovered or lost after all contractual consequences were settled.
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What happened to the races?
On March 14, 2026, Formula 1 announced that the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix would not take place in April because of the ongoing situation in the Middle East. F1 said there would be no substitute races in April. The associated Formula 2, Formula 3 and F1 Academy rounds were also cancelled. Formula 1’s cancellation announcement
In July, F1 announced that Malaysia would host a Bahrain Grand Prix at Sepang on October 2–4, subject to final agreements and approval by the World Motor Sport Council. F1 described the arrangement as preserving a Grand Prix that otherwise would not have happened. It was a later calendar arrangement, not a Bahrain race held in Bahrain during the cancelled April slot. The announcement alone does not verify the event’s eventual outcome. Formula 1’s Malaysia announcement
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What did Liberty Media report?
Liberty Media’s second-quarter 2026 results described lower year-over-year revenue and cost recognition related to calendar differences, but did not give a standalone final cancellation-loss total. The release said the first half reflected a 22-race calendar, with eight races held through June 30 compared with 11 in the corresponding 2025 period. After the Malaysia arrangement was announced, Liberty assumed 23 races for 2026—one fewer than in 2025—citing the absence of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in April. Liberty Media’s second-quarter results
That company reporting supplies calendar context, not confirmation of the analyst estimate. The most accurate answer remains that the cancellation was estimated to cost $190–200 million in revenue and approximately $80 million in EBITDA, while the final net amount has not been publicly stated as a separate figure.
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