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In one 2025 U.S. model, battery-electric cars start with a larger carbon footprint because of manufacturing, but their cumulative CO₂ emissions become lower than those of comparable gasoline cars after the second year. That is a modeled result—not a universal two-year rule. The timing changes with the electricity grid, vehicle efficiency and use, battery production, and the study’s boundaries.
What does “after two years” mean?
The claim comes from a U.S. study by Pankaj Sadavarte, Drew Shindell, and Daniel Loughlin, published in PLOS Climate on October 29, 2025. Using the GCAM-USA v7.0 model, the authors compared battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) with internal-combustion-engine vehicles (ICEVs) across four levels of BEV adoption, accounting for responses in energy supply and related sectors. They report that BEVs produce 30% higher CO₂ emissions during the first two years, then have lower cumulative CO₂ emissions after year two.
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“Cumulative” is the key word: the model counts the initial manufacturing burden and compares the running total over time. It does not mean every electric car becomes cleaner at precisely the same point after purchase. The study models U.S. conditions and scenarios, not the history or emissions of an individual car.
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Why electric cars start with a carbon debt
Making a car emits greenhouse gases, and an EV’s battery adds energy- and material-intensive steps before the vehicle is driven. The PLOS comparison includes lithium extraction and processing, battery production, and vehicle production. It then accounts for fuel or electricity supply and vehicle use. That manufacturing burden is why an EV can begin behind a gasoline car in a lifecycle comparison, even though it has no tailpipe emissions while driving.
Australia’s Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water also explains that EV production emissions are generally higher, especially because of the battery. Its consumer guidance gives an approximate two-year period to offset production emissions in an Australian context. That is a separate estimate, based on a different region and method; it should not be treated as confirmation that every EV in every grid pays back in two years. See the Australian government’s electric-car information.
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What can move the payback point?
The time until an EV’s cumulative footprint falls below a gasoline car’s depends on the emissions incurred in manufacturing and on the emissions avoided during use. Those values vary with the electricity used to charge the car, how much energy each vehicle consumes, how far it is driven, and assumptions about battery production and future energy systems.
- Electricity mix: Charging on a lower-carbon grid generally improves the EV’s use-phase result. A grid’s emissions and its future changes matter, not just the vehicle’s lack of tailpipe exhaust.
- Vehicle efficiency and size: Energy use differs by vehicle. A comparison should match broadly similar vehicle classes rather than assume all cars have the same footprint.
- Distance driven: Driving more can accumulate operating-emissions savings sooner; low annual mileage can extend the time needed to offset a manufacturing difference.
- Battery and manufacturing assumptions: Battery size, production emissions, and supply-chain choices affect the initial burden.
- Study boundaries: Results depend on what emissions and stages are counted, and on the modeled grid and vehicle lifetime.
Other recent analyses also find lifecycle advantages for BEVs, but their figures are not interchangeable with the PLOS result. A 2025 Communications Sustainability study of U.S. 2023 vehicle models reported production-weighted averages of 183 g CO₂e per mile for BEVs and 521 g CO₂e per mile for ICEVs. Those are results from that study’s vehicle sample and assumptions, not a recalculation of the PLOS model. Its analysis also found that electricity mix materially shifts BEV results; even its combined worst-case scenario reported a 30% lower average BEV lifecycle footprint.
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What the two-year finding does—and does not—count
The PLOS study’s lifecycle perspective covers lithium extraction and processing, battery and vehicle production, fuel or electricity supply, and vehicle use. It excludes end-of-life emissions, including battery reuse, repurposing, and recycling, because the authors say those effects require a detailed method and are uncertain. It also treats CO₂-equivalent as CO₂ for its vehicle factors, assuming non-CO₂ greenhouse gases are negligible relative to CO₂ in that component.
The headline is about carbon emissions, not every environmental impact of a car. The PLOS paper also models some air pollutants and estimates economic damages, but those are distinct measures and should not be conflated with cumulative CO₂.
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How to use this finding when comparing cars
For a useful comparison, look for a lifecycle analysis that matches the vehicles and the place where they will be driven. Check whether it includes battery and vehicle manufacturing as well as electricity or fuel production and use; note its assumptions about vehicle efficiency, battery size, distance driven, and grid emissions. A payback estimate without those details can sound more precise—and more universal—than it is.
The practical takeaway from the 2025 U.S. model is that the EV’s manufacturing emissions do not erase its modeled operating advantage: in those scenarios, cumulative CO₂ becomes lower after the second year. The exact crossover for a particular car and driver is not established by that headline number.
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