No—not based on the public evidence available. In a Reuters interview published in November 2024, CATL founder and chairman Robin Zeng said he had told Elon Musk that Tesla’s 4680 battery program “is going to fail and never be successful.” That is a serious industry assessment, but it is still a prediction—not proof that the entire 4680 format has failed.
Tesla’s subsequent disclosures show that the company continued producing 4680 cells, reached a 100-million-cell milestone by the third quarter of 2024, reported 40 GWh of installed annual 4680 capacity in Texas, and began using its own cells in packs for certain Model Y vehicles. The unresolved question is whether Tesla has achieved the cost, yield, energy-density, thermal-management, and reliability advantages promised when the program was introduced.
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What Robin Zeng actually predicted
Reuters reported in November 2024 that Robin Zeng, the founder and chairman of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd., had told Tesla CEO Elon Musk directly that Tesla’s 4680 battery strategy “is going to fail and never be successful.” Zeng also criticized Musk’s habit of presenting projects that may require five years as if they could be completed in two.
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Random freezes, missing sound and display glitches usually trace back to one bad driver. Find and replace yours safely.Free scan · under a minuteZeng’s comments were aimed primarily at Tesla’s approach to cylindrical batteries and the difficulty of manufacturing the company’s version economically at high volume. They were not a public technical audit proving that every battery using the 4680 dimensions is defective or commercially unviable.
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The distinction matters. CATL is a major competitor in the EV-battery market and also supplies Tesla in other parts of its vehicle business. According to SNE Research, CATL remained the largest power-battery supplier in 2025, with a reported 39.2% share. CATL had also said it ranked first for seven consecutive years through 2023. Zeng therefore has substantial industry expertise—but CATL also has a commercial interest in which battery architecture automakers choose.
What is a 4680 battery?
“4680” describes the cell’s approximate physical dimensions: 46 millimeters in diameter and 80 millimeters tall. It is a large cylindrical cell, considerably larger than the 2170-format cylindrical cells used in some Tesla vehicles.
Tesla’s 4680 program was introduced around Battery Day in September 2020 as more than a change in cell size. Tesla combined several ideas:
| Part of the strategy | What Tesla intended it to do |
|---|---|
| Larger cylindrical cell | Reduce the number of cells, interconnections, housings, and related pack components needed for a given battery pack. |
| Tabless electrode design | Improve current flow and power capability while reducing some manufacturing complexity associated with conventional tabs. |
| Structural battery pack | Make the battery pack part of the vehicle’s structure rather than treating it only as a removable energy container. |
| Dry-electrode processing | Reduce or eliminate solvent-heavy coating and drying steps, with the potential for lower factory energy use, less equipment, and lower cost. |
| In-house production | Give Tesla more control over cell design, supply, manufacturing economics, and future vehicle integration. |
The intended result was a battery that could deliver more energy and power at lower cost, while allowing Tesla to build packs more efficiently. But the 4680 name describes a form factor, not one universal chemistry or manufacturing process. Different companies can use 46xx cylindrical cells with different cathodes, anodes, production methods, cooling systems, and pack designs.
That means a criticism of Tesla’s particular cell chemistry, dry-electrode process, production yield, or structural-pack strategy should not automatically be treated as a verdict on every large cylindrical cell.
Tesla’s evidence that the program continued
Tesla did not respond to Zeng’s prediction by abandoning the project. Its own reports documented several later milestones.
| Date | Tesla’s reported milestone | What it shows—and what it does not |
|---|---|---|
| Second quarter of 2024 | Tesla said it produced more than 50% more 4680 cells than in the first quarter. It also said it began vehicle testing of a Cybertruck prototype using in-house dry-cathode 4680 cells. | Production and vehicle validation were continuing. The disclosure did not establish the final cost, yield, durability, or readiness of the cells for broad deployment. |
| Third quarter of 2024 | Tesla said it had produced its 100-millionth 4680 cell and was continuing to progress dry-cathode manufacturing lines. | The program had reached substantial industrial output. One hundred million cells alone does not prove profitability, superior energy density, or reliable high yield. |
| Fiscal 2025 annual report | Tesla listed 40 GWh of installed annual 4680 capacity in Texas and marked that capacity as in production. It also said it had begun producing packs for certain Model Y vehicles using Tesla-made 4680 cells. | The cells had moved beyond a laboratory project and into reported vehicle production. The wording does not mean every Model Y uses a 4680 pack, nor does it disclose the pack’s realized economics. |
| January 2026 investor materials | Tesla said it was producing dry-electrode material for 4680 cells in Austin, with both the anode and cathode made using the dry process. | Tesla continued to invest in and report progress on the manufacturing strategy. It still does not provide all the independent operating data needed to judge commercial superiority. |
These milestones directly contradict the strongest version of the claim that the 4680 program simply disappeared or became impossible to manufacture. Tesla has continued to produce the cells and report vehicle deployment.
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Why production volume does not settle the argument
A battery company can produce millions of cells while still missing its business case. The more important measurements include:
- Yield: How many cells leave the line within specification rather than becoming scrap or requiring rework?
- Throughput: How quickly can each production line manufacture acceptable cells at steady state?
- Realized cost: What does each usable kilowatt-hour cost after materials, labor, energy, depreciation, quality control, and scrap?
- Energy density: How much energy does the complete cell and pack store relative to their weight and volume?
- Thermal behavior: How easily can the pack remove heat during fast charging, high-power driving, and hot-weather operation?
- Durability: How does capacity and power capability change over time and repeated charging?
- Warranty performance: Are early production cells producing unusual failure rates or warranty costs?
- Pack-level economics: Does the complete 4680 pack cost less and perform better than supplier-made alternatives once cooling hardware and vehicle integration are included?
Tesla’s public disclosures provide useful capacity and production milestones but limited detail on scrap rates, realized cost per kilowatt-hour, warranty performance, and comparative pack economics. Without those figures, it is impossible to say from production totals alone that Tesla has either won or lost the 4680 bet.
The dry-electrode bottleneck
Dry-electrode manufacturing is one of the most important parts of Tesla’s cost argument. Conventional electrode production generally involves coating active material onto a metal foil, using solvents, and then drying the coated material in large ovens. A successful dry process could reduce solvent handling, drying equipment, factory space, energy consumption, and potentially manufacturing cost.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesIt is also a difficult process to scale. A commercial line must produce a coating that is uniform across a large electrode, maintain consistent adhesion and density, prevent defects, and deliver cells that meet performance and safety requirements. A line that can make test material is not necessarily a line that can produce high volumes with automotive-grade yield.
Tesla’s 2024 reports described progress on dry-cathode lines and vehicle testing of an in-house dry-cathode cell. Its later materials said both the anode and cathode dry-electrode processes were being produced in Austin. That is meaningful evidence of continued industrial progress, but it is not the same as public proof that the process has achieved Tesla’s original cost or yield targets.
The practical test is not whether Tesla can operate a dry-electrode line. It is whether the line can run fast enough, consistently enough, and cheaply enough to beat available supplier cells after quality losses and pack integration costs are counted.
Independent engineering evidence points to trade-offs
A 2025 teardown study by researchers at RWTH Aachen University compared a Tesla 4680-based battery with BYD’s Blade battery. The researchers reported that Tesla’s design placed greater emphasis on cell energy density, while BYD’s design prioritized volumetric efficiency and the use of less expensive materials.
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The study also found that the BYD battery was more efficient in the comparison because its architecture enabled simpler thermal management. That result does not demonstrate that the 4680 is inherently unsafe, unusable, or doomed. It does show why a larger cylindrical cell cannot be judged by its dimensions alone.
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A larger cell can reduce the number of cells and connections in a pack. Fewer components may reduce housing and assembly costs. But larger cells can also make heat removal and temperature uniformity more challenging. When cells are larger, there may be fewer individual paths through which heat can escape, and the pack’s cooling architecture becomes especially important.
The relevant comparison is therefore at the pack and vehicle level. A cell that looks attractive on an energy-density chart may not produce the lowest-cost, simplest, or most efficient vehicle battery after cooling systems, structural components, manufacturing yield, and service requirements are included.
What could “fail” mean?
Zeng’s statement uses an absolute word for a question that has several possible definitions. In this context, “fail” could mean any of the following:
| Possible meaning of failure | What the public record supports |
|---|---|
| Missing Tesla’s original cost-reduction target | This remains a legitimate question. Tesla has not publicly disclosed enough detailed cost data to prove that it achieved the original target. |
| Failing to reach the planned manufacturing yield or scale | Also unresolved. Tesla has reported substantial output and installed capacity, but not all the yield and scrap data needed to assess the production economics. |
| Underperforming supplier-made 2170 or other cells in real vehicles | Possible in some applications, but a fair judgment requires comparable vehicle- and pack-level data. The public record does not establish a universal result. |
| Losing out to prismatic or other battery architectures | The RWTH comparison illustrates real thermal-management and material trade-offs. It does not show that one architecture will win every vehicle segment. |
| Tesla abandoning the program completely | Not supported by the latest cited Tesla disclosures. Tesla continued to report 4680 production, Texas capacity, dry-electrode work, and use in certain Model Y packs. |
Under the first four definitions, Zeng’s criticism remains relevant. Under the fifth, the available evidence points the other way.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Is Tesla’s 4680 strategy a failure now?
The fairest answer is not yet—but neither is it a clear victory for Tesla.
Tesla has demonstrated that it can manufacture 4680 cells at meaningful industrial scale. The 100-million-cell milestone, reported increases in production, vehicle testing, reported Texas capacity, and Model Y pack deployment are evidence of persistence and real-world implementation.
At the same time, the company’s disclosures do not establish that the cells deliver the complete package of benefits promised in 2020. The missing pieces include transparent yield data, independently verified cost comparisons, pack-level energy and thermal performance, degradation results, and evidence that Tesla’s in-house cells are consistently more advantageous than cells supplied by Panasonic, LG Energy Solution, CATL, BYD, and other manufacturers.
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That produces a mixed verdict: Tesla’s 4680 program has not failed in the literal sense of disappearing or never reaching production. But it has not publicly proven the stronger claim that it transformed EV battery economics or clearly outperformed competing designs.
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The next evidence to watch
The debate will be settled less by another production milestone than by operational data. The most revealing future disclosures would include:
- Usable-cell yield and scrap rates for the Austin 4680 lines.
- Actual cost per kilowatt-hour at both the cell and complete-pack level.
- Consistent production volume compared with the reported 40 GWh of installed annual capacity.
- Vehicle range, charging, and degradation data from cars using Tesla-made cells compared with otherwise similar vehicles using supplier cells.
- Warranty and field-reliability results from larger-scale Model Y and Cybertruck deployment.
- The share of Tesla vehicles using in-house 4680 packs and whether that share expands or remains limited to selected configurations.
Those metrics would answer the question Zeng’s prediction raises: not whether Tesla can make a 4680 cell, but whether making it internally is better than buying a different cell from a specialized supplier.
The larger lesson for EV buyers
Battery format is not a simple ranking system. Cylindrical, prismatic, and pouch cells each involve different compromises in manufacturing, cooling, packaging, repairability, energy density, and cost. Even two cells with the same nominal dimensions can behave differently because chemistry, electrode design, production quality, and pack architecture vary.
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For Tesla, the strategic question is broader. The company is trying to control more of the battery supply chain while reducing costs through cell design and manufacturing. That could still become an important advantage, even if some original Battery Day targets arrive later than promised or prove less dramatic than initially presented.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has Tesla abandoned the 4680 battery?
No. Tesla’s fiscal-2025 annual report and January 2026 investor materials said the company continued 4680 production, listed 40 GWh of installed annual capacity in Texas, reported dry-electrode production in Austin, and said packs using Tesla-made 4680 cells were being produced for certain Model Y vehicles.
Does 4680 mean every Tesla battery uses the same chemistry?
No. The term mainly identifies a cylindrical cell size—about 46 millimeters by 80 millimeters. Chemistry, electrode design, manufacturing process, cooling system, and pack construction can differ between 4680-family cells and between manufacturers.
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Did Tesla’s 100-million-cell milestone prove the 4680 program succeeded?
No. It proved that Tesla had produced a substantial number of cells. It did not by itself prove that the company achieved its intended yield, cost, energy-density, durability, thermal, or profitability targets.
Why does CATL’s criticism matter?
CATL is the world’s leading power-battery supplier by the cited 2025 SNE Research ranking and a major Tesla competitor. Its chairman’s view is therefore informed and relevant, but it should also be treated as an interested industry judgment rather than independent proof that Tesla’s cells will fail.
The Bottom Line
Bottom line: Robin Zeng predicted in November 2024 that Tesla’s 4680 strategy would fail, but later Tesla disclosures show continuing production, dry-electrode development, reported Texas capacity, and limited vehicle deployment. The evidence supports a mixed conclusion: Tesla has not abandoned or failed to industrialize the format, yet it still has not publicly demonstrated that its 4680 implementation delivers the cost and performance breakthrough promised at Battery Day.
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