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Are Electric Cars Really Twice as Likely to Hit Pedestrians? What the Studies Found

The widely reported “twice as likely” result combined electric and hybrid cars. Newer Great Britain research separates them—and changes what the headline means.
Entry548 Date Time3 min MechanicCarCody Team

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Not necessarily. A 2024 Great Britain study found that reported pedestrian casualty rates per mile were about twice as high for a combined category of electric and hybrid-electric cars as for petrol and diesel cars. But a 2025 follow-up that separated battery-electric cars from hybrids found no higher casualty rate for battery EVs; the higher rate was associated with hybrids. The original headline should not be read as proof that battery EVs are twice as likely to hit pedestrians.

Are electric cars really twice as likely to hit pedestrians?

The 2024 study estimated 5.16 pedestrian casualties per 100 million vehicle miles for electric or hybrid-electric cars, compared with 2.40 for internal-combustion cars. Its overall rate ratio was 2.15 (95% confidence interval 2.05–2.26). The researchers analyzed reported pedestrian collisions involving cars or taxis in Great Britain from 2013 through 2017.

Those figures describe estimated casualty rates per mile, not the chance that any particular pedestrian will be hit, and not a comparison of raw crash totals. They also combine electric and hybrid-electric vehicles, so they do not establish that battery EVs individually had twice the rate. The study is observational and does not show what caused the difference. The 2024 study in the Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health reports the estimates and methods.

Did the 2024 result apply equally in cities and rural areas?

No. In the 2013–2017 Great Britain data, the estimated urban rate ratio was 2.97 (95% CI 2.41–3.70), indicating a higher casualty rate for the combined electric/hybrid group than for internal-combustion cars in urban settings. In rural settings, the rate ratio was 0.91 (95% CI 0.74–1.11), which did not provide clear evidence of a difference. These are setting-specific estimates from that study, not universal results for every city or country.

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Does the finding apply to battery EVs, or does it include hybrids?

The 2024 estimate grouped electric and hybrid-electric cars together. A separate 2025 study using Great Britain road-safety data from 2014–2023 distinguished battery EVs, hybrids (HEVs) and internal-combustion vehicles. It reported no higher pedestrian casualty rate for battery EVs compared with conventional vehicles, and no greater injury severity when a battery EV was the striking vehicle. It did report higher pedestrian casualty rates for hybrids.

The newer study therefore changes how the older headline should be interpreted: it does not support describing battery EVs generally as twice as likely to hit pedestrians. The two studies cover different periods and classify vehicles differently; the later study also considers injury severity. Its authors discuss vehicle use, including taxi and private-hire activity, urban exposure, annual mileage and the assumptions used to estimate vehicle exposure as factors relevant to interpreting the hybrid result. The 2025 follow-up in Nature Communications gives its findings and discussion.

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Can the studies explain why the rates differed?

No. The 2024 analysis identifies a difference in estimated casualty rates but cannot establish its cause. Propulsion information was missing for 22,829 pedestrian cases, compared with 1,652 cases recorded as electric or hybrid-electric, limiting what can be inferred from the vehicle classifications. As statistician Kevin McConway noted in his May 2024 Science Media Centre reaction, the study could not tell why the rates were higher.

It is therefore too simple to attribute the older finding to electric cars being quieter. The 2025 authors discuss exposure and patterns of vehicle use, among other considerations; the available results do not isolate a single cause.

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What role might acoustic vehicle alert systems play?

UK rules required new electric and hybrid vehicle models from July 2019 to have acoustic vehicle alert systems (AVAS) for low-speed driving. The 2025 paper notes that subsequent declines in observed rates are consistent with AVAS possibly contributing, but its analysis does not establish that the systems caused those declines. The regulatory requirement and a causal safety effect are separate claims; the paper does not prove the latter. Its AVAS discussion appears in the Nature Communications study.

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How to read the headline accurately

  • The “twice” estimate came from Great Britain data for 2013–2017 and a combined electric/hybrid category.
  • It measured pedestrian casualty rates relative to vehicle miles, not raw collisions or an individual pedestrian’s risk.
  • The 2024 estimate was higher in urban settings; the rural analysis did not show a clear difference.
  • The 2025 study found no higher casualty rate or injury severity for battery EVs, while reporting higher casualty rates for hybrids.
  • Neither study establishes that quietness caused the observed differences.

Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.

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