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Battery-electric vehicles had lower modeled life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions than gasoline vehicles in every county in the contiguous United States in a 2025 University of Michigan study. The size of the advantage varied with local electricity, vehicle class, battery size and driving pattern. The study does not rank every vehicle sold today, and it measures greenhouse gases—not every kind of pollution.
What the study found—and what “pollution” means here
The 2025 study, published in Environmental Science & Technology, compared modeled life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions, expressed as carbon-dioxide equivalent (CO2e), for vehicles across the contiguous United States. Its central finding was that battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) had lower life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions than gasoline vehicles in every county, although the advantage was larger in some places than others. The study’s geographic finding does not cover Alaska or Hawaii. The journal record and University of Michigan Electric Vehicle Center identify the study and its finding.
Here, “pollution” is shorthand for life-cycle greenhouse gases, not a full environmental score. The analysis does not establish which vehicle has the lowest local tailpipe pollutants, tire and road wear, water impacts or every other environmental effect. Nor does lower life-cycle emissions mean zero emissions: vehicle and battery production, electricity generation and use all contribute to the total.
Which vehicles and scenarios were compared?
The researchers used an Argonne National Laboratory life-cycle assessment model and EPA model-year-2025 vehicle data. They compared internal-combustion vehicles (ICEs), conventional hybrids, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) with modeled 35- and 50-mile electric ranges, and BEVs with modeled 200-, 300- and 400-mile ranges. Vehicle classes included compact and midsize sedans, small and midsize SUVs, and pickup trucks. These are modeled categories and scenarios, not rankings of specific makes and models available for purchase.
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How large were the modeled emissions differences?
The following figures are modeled results reported by Ars Technica’s Jonathan M. Gitlin on Aug. 25, 2025—not independent road tests by Ars. Percentage reductions compare each option with an internal-combustion vehicle in the same vehicle class unless otherwise stated.
| Modeled option | Reported result | Scenario qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Conventional hybrid | 11–13% lower life-cycle emissions | Compared with an internal-combustion vehicle within the same class. |
| 35-mile PHEV | 53–56% lower | Assumes 58% of driving time in electric mode; compared within the same class. |
| 50-mile PHEV | 56–60% lower | Assumes 69% of driving time in electric mode; compared within the same class. |
| 200-mile BEV | 74–75% lower | Equivalent gas vehicle in the same class is the comparison; the BEV contributes about 25–26% as much CO2e. |
| 300-mile BEV | 81–83% lower | Compared with an internal-combustion vehicle in the same class. |
| 400-mile BEV | 67–69% lower | Compared with an internal-combustion vehicle in the same class. |
The reported percentages are ranges across modeled vehicle classes, not a guarantee for a particular car or driver. The 400-mile BEV’s smaller reduction than the 300-mile option illustrates that more battery capacity does not automatically mean lower life-cycle emissions: manufacturing the larger pack adds impacts.
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Why two headline per-mile figures are not a direct vehicle ranking
Gitlin also reported 486 g CO2e per mile for a modeled gasoline pickup and 81 g CO2e per mile for a modeled compact electric sedan with a 200-mile battery. The pickup scenario assumed 43% city driving and the rest highway driving, with no cargo. The sedan and pickup are different vehicle classes, so these figures illustrate the scale of the modeled results but are not an apples-to-apples comparison.
Why the result changes by county
Electricity generation affects the size of a BEV’s life-cycle advantage because charging emissions depend on the local power mix. The study’s reported overall result remained in favor of BEVs versus gasoline vehicles across the contiguous-U.S. counties, but parts of the Midwest and Appalachian regions tended to show less benefit from electrification, while the Northeast and Pacific Northwest tended to show more. Ars Technica cited Seattle and Cincinnati as contrasting examples because their electricity sources differ.
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The modeled use phase accounted for 92% of life-cycle emissions for internal-combustion vehicles and 89% for conventional hybrids. For BEVs, it accounted for 48–60%, varying with battery size. That leaves manufacturing and other life-cycle stages relatively more consequential for BEVs, especially when comparing battery sizes.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How driving, charging and work use affect the comparison
PHEVs depend on electric-mode driving
The PHEV reductions above rely on assumptions about how much driving occurs in electric mode. A PHEV that is not regularly charged may not match those modeled assumptions. For a real-world choice, consider whether your routine and access to charging make the assumed electric use plausible.
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Battery range should match the routine, not an abstract maximum
Among the BEV options modeled, the report says the smallest battery pack had the lowest environmental impact. That is a result for the study’s scenarios, not a recommendation to choose a particular vehicle. Range needs, charging access and the driving you actually do still matter; a vehicle category’s modeled result does not tell you whether its range suits your use.
Cargo was modeled; towing was not
The researchers included commuting and errands, occasional road trips, and work driving with cargo. With 2,500 pounds of cargo, the modeled 200-mile BEV pickup’s per-mile emissions rose 13%, while those of the internal-combustion pickup rose 22%; the starting ICE pickup emissions were reported as about four times higher. This cargo scenario does not establish how towing affects emissions, because towing was not examined.
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How to apply the findings to your vehicle choice
The study supports a comparison based on several factors rather than a single universal winner:
- Powertrain: gas, conventional hybrid, PHEV or BEV.
- Vehicle class: compare vehicles of similar size and use, rather than using a sedan-versus-pickup figure as a direct ranking.
- Battery range: consider the range your regular driving requires; larger modeled packs had higher manufacturing impacts.
- Local electricity mix: county conditions affect how large the BEV advantage is.
- Driving and charging habits: particularly important for whether a PHEV can achieve the modeled electric-mode share.
- Cargo and work use: the report includes cargo scenarios, but not towing.
Ars Technica reported that the study included an interactive county-level emissions calculator, but the District of Columbia was missing from its menu at the time of that Aug. 25, 2025 report. The calculator’s current availability and geographic coverage have not been established here, so do not assume it includes every U.S. location.
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