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Broad current estimates put three-year Tesla Model 3 depreciation at about 42%–43%. iSeeCars estimates a $15,967 loss, leaving a $21,023 residual value; CarEdge estimates 42.2% depreciation and a $21,677 resale value under its stated assumptions. These are different model-level estimates, not a guaranteed value for any particular car. A Kelley Blue Book example for a 2022 Model 3 is lower: about 30% depreciation over its most recent three years.
Three-year Model 3 depreciation estimates
The estimates below use different methods and assumptions, so they are best read as reference points rather than combined into a single precise figure.
| Source and estimate | Three-year result | Basis and caveat |
|---|---|---|
| iSeeCars | 43.2% depreciation; $15,967 loss; $21,023 residual value | Model-level estimate. iSeeCars says it compares new-car prices with used-car prices at each age and uses a mathematical model accounting for automaker and vehicle segment. Its multi-age estimates analyze more than 15 million vehicles. |
| CarEdge | 42.2% depreciation; $21,677 estimated resale value | Illustrative curve based on a $51,380 selling price when new, good condition, and 13,500 miles per year. CarEdge says individual accuracy is not guaranteed. |
| Kelley Blue Book: 2022 Model 3 | About 30% depreciation over the most recent three years; $22,400 estimated resale value and $19,950 estimated trade-in value | Model-year-specific valuation context. Values vary with location, equipment, mileage, and condition; resale and trade-in are distinct transaction types. |
The iSeeCars and CarEdge figures are broad model-level estimates, while KBB’s example concerns a particular model year and gives separate resale and trade-in values. Their differences do not by themselves show that one provider is wrong.
Why your Model 3 may lose more or less
Depreciation depends on the car and the comparison being made. To make two estimates meaningful, match these details as closely as possible:
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- Model year and trim: A broad Model 3 curve may not reflect the value of a specific year or configuration.
- Starting price: Compare against what you actually paid, where possible. Incentives and changes in new-car pricing can affect the reference point for used cars, though the cited estimates do not isolate how much each factor contributes.
- Mileage and condition: CarEdge’s curve assumes 13,500 miles annually and good condition; KBB also identifies mileage and condition as value factors.
- Sale method: A private-party resale estimate is not the same as a dealer trade-in estimate. KBB’s 2022 example puts the two values $2,450 apart.
- Region and valuation date: Local demand and changing market conditions can move estimates. The cited pages are dynamic and their current values may change.
How to estimate depreciation for your own Model 3
- Record the model year, trim, equipment, mileage, and condition of your car.
- Use a valuation tool that accepts those details and select the value type you need: private-party resale or dealer trade-in. The KBB model-year valuation page and CarEdge’s Model 3 calculator are examples.
- Compare the same transaction type across providers, using the same vehicle details and valuation date. Treat the results as estimates, not completed-sale prices.
- For a percentage estimate, calculate
(starting value − current estimated value) ÷ starting value × 100. Use the original transaction price as the starting value if you want to measure your own loss; use a provider’s stated new-car basis only when comparing against that provider’s depreciation curve.
How KBB’s five-year residual figure relates
KBB’s 2026 release says its projected residual values reflect vehicles in average condition with 75,000 miles at the end of a five-year lease or ownership period. KBB puts the average residual value for 2026 model-year vehicles at about 45% after five years. That is broad five-year context—not a Model 3-specific three-year depreciation estimate—and should not be substituted for the figures above. See KBB’s 2026 award release for its stated methodology.
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